Showing posts with label Runs. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Runs. Show all posts

Wednesday, April 24, 2013

U.S. Mint Runs Out of Smallest American Eagle Gold Coin; Is There a Shortage of Physical Gold? Coordinated Smackdown by Naked Shorts?

Demand for gold coins has surged following the record price plunge in gold last week. Demand is so high that the U.S. Mint Runs Out of Smallest American Eagle Gold Coin.

The U.S. Mint ran out its smallest American Eagle gold coin after demand surged following the biggest drop in futures prices in 33 years.

Sales of the coins weighing a 10th of an ounce were suspended after demand more than doubled in 2013 from a year earlier, the Mint said today in a statement. Total sales of American Eagles in April have almost tripled from a month earlier, according to Mint data on the website.


On April 15, gold futures in New York plunged 9.3 percent, the most since 1980. Retail sales and jewelry demand soared in India, the world’s top buyer, and China, the second-biggest. Coin sales also surged in Australia.


The Mint also sells 22-karat American Eagle coins of 1 ounce, half an ounce and a quarter of an ounce.


The U.S. Mint suspended sales of silver coins in January for more than a week because of lack of inventory. Sales of the coins jumped to a record that month.


Bullish or Bearish?


It’s possible to make a bullish or bearish argument out of this shortage. The bullish argument is simple: demand is strong. The bearish argument is small investors are a contrarian indicator just as they were with silver in January.


I am not taking a short-term stance one way or another, so don’t ask. I do like my chances longer-term as I explained at the Wine Country Conference. See Mike “Mish” Shedlock: A Brief Lesson in History.


Shortage of Physical Gold?


Some writers have spun this story into the message there is a shortage of physical gold. No there isn’t. There is a temporary shortage of certain coins, no more no less.


Divergence Between Physical Gold and Paper Gold?


Other writers have noticed the price premium on small denomination coins and concluded there is some sort of “divergence between physical gold and paper gold”.


Once again, that’s nonsense. Premiums on small denomination coins is not the same a general premium on physical gold itself.


How do I know?


Easy: If I went to buy or sell at GoldMoney (and GoldMoney only deals in physical metals with allocated, audited storage), I would pay the same small markup as before, based on the current futures price.


Here is another way to tell. Go buy or sell a one ounce bar and see how much it costs or how much you can get. Here’s a hint: your selling price will not fetch $ 1900 as it once did, nor would it cost you over $ 1900 to buy.


Smackdown by Naked Shorts?


Many claim blatant manipulation by naked shorts. Mercy! Under this theory, shorts piled on to the tune of 163,000 gold futures. Really?


Keith Weiner tackles that theory for the Acting Man Blog in The Last Contango. Here is the pertinent chart.



Weiner asks “If someone had sold 163,000 futures to cause the price to drop, then wouldn’t the open interest [in futures] have risen? If Santa went down chimneys, wouldn’t there be soot on his red and white uniform?


The answer to both questions is of course “yes”. Instead, the chart shows a 16,000 open interest drop in gold futures and a 12,000 drop in silver futures.

Ignore the Hype in Both Directions


Bulls blame every drop on manipulation and frequently tout preposterous price targets. Bears cite jewelry demand and other nonsense as if it’s important (and it isn’t).


It is best to ignore the hype and silliness on both sides.


Fundamentally, what has changed? I suggest nothing.


Mike “Mish” Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com


Mish’s Global Economic Trend Analysis




U.S. Mint Runs Out of Smallest American Eagle Gold Coin; Is There a Shortage of Physical Gold? Coordinated Smackdown by Naked Shorts?

Saturday, March 16, 2013

Contagion-Begging Actions; Expect Bank Runs Following Cyprus Idiocy; Have Money in a Spanish Bank? Take It Out Now!

In Cyprus, a decision was made to screw savers with a 6.75% to 9.9% “Tax” on deposits.

Supposedly this move was made to “avoid unsettling investors in larger countries and sparking a new round of market contagion.”


In reality, the action was mandated theft, imposed by EU officials to protect senior bondholders.


How can such an action do anything but cause contagion?


The move is expected to raise a mere 5.8 billion euros according to Dutch Finance Minister Jeroen Dijsselbloem, leader of the euro-area ministers. Fallout from this action will cost far more than that.


Contagion-Begging Actions


What is someone in Greece, Spain, or Italy supposed to think?


Consider Spain. By a 526 to 86 vote, the nannycrats in Brussels just passed a regulation that will require a country to accept a bailout if offered. (Please see An Offer You Cannot Refuse; EU Passes Law Forcing Countries to Take Bailout; Is Spain the First Target?)


Also note that EU Court Strikes Down Spain’s Eviction Law.


Think the parlay of EU contagion-begging actions for a second.


  1. Spanish banks will not be able to evict homeowners, who in turn will be give reason to default. Losses will soar at Spanish banks and they are insolvent already.

  2.  The “Offer You Cannot Refuse” action by the EU is sure to arouse suspicion of a forced bailout in Spain.

  3. Cyprus actions will heighten fears of bank takeovers, capital controls, and theft of deposits via confiscation. 

Expect Bank Runs


Why would any rational thinking Spanish person keep any money in Spanish banks? They shouldn’t and I suspect they won’t.


Moreover, this is bound to further inflame the situation in Italy, where Beppe Grillo’s Five Star Movement is already the largest party.


In short, this action was one of the single stupidest things the EU could have done and they crammed it down the throats of all Cyprus citizens, hoping to stop the spread of contagion.


My friend Bernd who lives in Germany had these comments. “Judging by the German forums on Focus, Der Spiegel, SZ, FAZ and Die Zeit, there is hardly any support for this action. The name calling and swearing is rather blunt. These guys did not study their Machiavelli. He said roughly if you hurt people, you must never hurt all of them at once.”


The closest Machiavelli quote I can find is “If you need to injure someone, do it in such a way that you do not have to fear their vengeance.”


Rest assured there is going to be vengeance over this action. The Cyprus government will fall, and deposit fear will spread everywhere.


Mike “Mish” Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com


Wine Country Conference


I am hosting an economic conference on April 5 in Sonoma, California. Proceeds go to the Les Turner ALS Foundation (Lou Gehrig’s Disease).


Please see My Wife Joanne Has Passed Away; Stop and Smell the Lilacs for my association with the disease.


To learn about the economic conference with world-class speakers including John Hussman, Michael Pettis, Jim Chanos, John Mauldin, Mike “Mish” Shedlock, Chris Martenson with guest moderator Lauren Lyster and other Special Guests, please visit Wine Country Conference April 5, 2013


Mish’s Global Economic Trend Analysis




Contagion-Begging Actions; Expect Bank Runs Following Cyprus Idiocy; Have Money in a Spanish Bank? Take It Out Now!

Europe Does It Again: Cyprus Depositor Haircut "Bailout" Turns Into Saver "Panic", Frozen Assets, Bank Runs, Broken ATMs


Europe has done it again.



Late last night, after markets closed for the weekend, following an extended discussion the European finance ministers announced their “bailout” solution for Russian oligarch depositor-haven Cyprus: a €13 billion bailout (Europe’s fifth) with a huge twist: the implementation of what has been the biggest taboo in European bailouts to date – the  impairment of depositors, and a fresh, full blown escalation in the status quo’s war against savers everywhere.


Specifically, Cyprus will impose a levy of 6.75% on deposits of less than €100,000 – the ceiling for European Union account insurance, which is now effectively gone following this case study – and 9.9% above that. The measures will raise €5.8 billion, Dutch Finance Minister Jeroen Dijsselbloem, who leads the group of euro-area ministers, said.


But it doesn’t stop there: a partial “bail-in” of junior bondholders is also possible, as for the first time ever the entire liability structure of a European bank – even if it is a Cypriot bank – is open season for impairments. The logical question: why here, and why now? And what happens when the Cypriot bank run that has taken the country by storm this morning spreads everywhere else, now that the scab over Europe’s biggest festering wound is torn throughout the periphery as all the other PIIGS realize they too are expendable on the altar of mollifying voters and investors in the other countries that make up Europe’s disunion.


Bloomberg provides its take on the sacrifice of Cyprus:


Officials have struggled to find an agreement that would rescue Cyprus, which accounts for just half of a percent of the euro region’s economy, without unsettling investors in larger countries and sparking a new round of market contagion. Policy makers began meeting at 5 p.m. yesterday in a hastily convened gathering, seeking to overcome differences on bondholder losses while financial markets were closed.


 


“Further measures concern the increase of the withholding tax on capital income, a restructuring and recapitalisation of banks, an increase of the statutory corporate income tax rate and a bail-in of junior bondholders,” according to a communique released by ministers after the talks. It didn’t specify whether bank or sovereign bond holders could be affected.


 


The European Central Bank will use its existing facilities to make funds available to Cypriot banks as needed to counter potential bank runs. Depositors will receive bank equity as compensation.


 


Finance Minister Michael Sarris said the plan was the “least onerous” of the options Cyprus faced to stay afloat.


 


“It’s not a pleasant outcome, especially of course for the people involved,” said Sarris. The Cypriot parliament will convene tomorrow to vote on legislation needed for the bailout.



While “saving” yet another insolvent country merely has the intent of keeping it in the Eurozone, and thus preserving Europe’s doomed monetary block for a little longer, this idiotic plan will achieve two things: i) infuriate not only Russians but very wealth, and very trigger-happy Russians. The revenge of Gazpromia will be short and swift, and we certainly would not want to be Europeans next winter when the average heating level of Western European will depend on the whims of Russian natural gas pipeline traffic; ii) start a wave of bank runs first in Cyprus and soon everywhere else that has the potential of being the next Cyrpus.


Sure enough, here come the bank runs:


While the tax on deposits will hurt wealthy Russians with money in Cypriot banks, it will also sting ordinary citizens. Some ATMs in the country have run out of cash, Erotokritos Chlorakiotis, general manager of the Cooperative Central Bank, told state-run CYBC.



Forzen assets and “national bank holidays” are baaaaack:


Funds to pay the levy were frozen in accounts immediately, ECB Executive Board Member Joerg Asmussen said. The levy will be assessed before Cypriot banks reopen on March 19 after a March 18 national holiday. Sarris said electronic transfers will also be limited until then.



Europe’s response: this is a unique situation. Just like the Greek bailout was unique;  just like the Irish and Portuguese bailouts were unique;  just like the bailout of Spanish banks was unique.


“As it is a contribution to the financial stability of Cyprus, it seems just to ask a contribution of all deposit holders,” Dijsselbloem said, noting the country’s financial industry was five times the size of its economy. The plan includes “unique measures” that address the “exceptional nature” of Cyprus and show “inflexible commitment to financial stability and the integrity of the euro area.”



Curiously, even everyone’s favorite liar, former Eurogroup president, Jean-Claude Juncker, has a warning that this “bailout” is the worst thing Europe could have done:


Skeptics including Luxembourg’s Jean-Claude Juncker had said that imposing investor losses in Cyprus risked reigniting the financial crisis that has so far pushed five of the euro zone’s 17 members to seek aid. Last year, the euro area took what officials called a unique step to ask Greek bondholders to absorb losses.



But fear not: Europe has promised this absolute resolution taboo won’t repeat itself…


When asked if a deposit assessment could be ruled out for future rescues, Rehn said in an interview: “It can and there is no concrete case where it should be considered.”



… Until it does repeat itself of course – after all the fundamental problem for Europe has never been resolved: the continent is still broke, and it still is running out of good, unencumbered assets (which as being repledged by the banking oligarchy) with every passing day.


Now the only thing unknown is Russia’s response:


Corporate tax rates in Cyprus will rise to 12.5 percent to 10 percent as part of the deal, Dijsselbloem said. Rehn told reporters that Russia, whose banks have loaned as much as $ 40 billion to Cypriot companies of Russian origin, would ease terms on its existing loans to Cyprus as the rescue unfolds. Cyprus’s finance minister is scheduled to fly to Moscow on March 20.



What is known, however is that Cypriots have taken the news in stride…. and to their local ATM machine, which sadly is showing the following message: “We apologize. We are facing difficulties” (courtesy of Yannis Mouzakis).



It didn’t take long before the Cyrpus Cooperative bank issued a statement saying “some ATMs run out of cash” – by some they likely mean all as the entire country is now gripped in a full force depositor run.


Some other snapshots of what is currently happening in Cyrpus, where locals are using excavators if not to force the ATMs into “compliance” then to block bank entrances out of blind fury. From Philenews:


Indignant citizen who has the testimony of the Cooperative Credit Society Kyperoundas, cut the morning the entrance of the branch of the SEA, located on Avenue Nikos and Despina Pattichi in Limassol.


 


He said he believes that deceived by the assurances that the relevant deposits are insured citizens and decided how to express his protest, parking the excavator outside the entrance of the branch of SEA


 




And more from iefimeirda:


With the first light of day after the unprecedented decision to the Eurogroup on the terms of the Memorandum of Agreement and the taxation of savings, hundreds of people flocked to Cyprus stores credit cooperatives Larnaca to withdraw their deposits.


With the opening of stores found they could not withdraw all their money, because the electronic system of credit cooperatives was not working. And when it became possible, writes the Daily Cyprus, the system seemed to finally hit the appropriate amount of the new tax, which provoked strong reactions. Even after the government ordered the stores eventually closed.


 


At the same time, according to information or ATMs of banks give no money so that there is a huge inconvenience.


 


After lunch return to Cyprus President Papadopoulos Nikos Anastasiadis from Brussels in the morning reached political agreement on the rescue of the economy, while in the meantime the Presidential prepares emergency meeting of ministers of the government.


 


According to all the information, will this weekend be submitted and voted on bills in the form of urgency, before the banks opened Tuesday morning.


 


In the text of the agreement, with the characteristic title “We caught napping,” the website says Sigma Live Nicosia agreed terms “under threat of closing banks.”  painful Describing the agreement, Sigma relies on sources from Brussels you speak of night thriller and roll jams, and the Cypriot delegation warned even withdrawal from the negotiations.



Congratulations Cyprus savers – you were just betrayed by both your politicians, and by Europe – sorry, but you are the “creeping impairments” in the game known as European bankruptcy. And so is anywhere between 6.75% and 9.9% of your money, which you were foolish enough to keep with your banks (where at least you were compensated with a savings yield of… 0%).


More importantly, as of this morning Europe has finally grasped that there is a 6.75% to 9.9% premium to holding physical cash in your mattress rather than having it stored with your local friendly insolvent bank.


Luckily Cyrpus is so “small” what just happened there will never happen anywhere else: after all in Europe nobody has ever heard of “setting an example”. Or so the thinking among Europe’s unthinking political elite goes.


And congratulations Europe: just when people almost believed you things are “fixed” you go ahead and prove to the world that you are as disunified (because size doesn’t matter in a true union), as confused, as stupid and as broke as ever. 









Zero Hedge




Europe Does It Again: Cyprus Depositor Haircut "Bailout" Turns Into Saver "Panic", Frozen Assets, Bank Runs, Broken ATMs