Showing posts with label within. Show all posts
Showing posts with label within. Show all posts

Tuesday, April 30, 2013

Report in Syria: Suspected chemical substance dropped from planes. Lebanon believe that a war will break out within six weeks involving Lebanon, Syria and possibly, Iran.



Two people were killed and 20 others were injured in northwestern Syrian province of Idlib Tuesday after warplanes dropped bags containing “strange substances,” Al-Jazeera reported, saying the suspicious material was apparently chemical weapons.


Videos uploaded by the Qatari news network show casualties having difficulties breathing treated in makeshift hospitals. One video showed a healthcare professional drawing attention to the white foam coming out of an injured man’s mouth.


According to the report, sources in Lebanon believe that a war will break out within six weeks, involving Lebanon, Syria and possibly, Iran.


http://www.ynetnews.com/articles/0,7340,L-4374213,00.html



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Report in Syria: Suspected chemical substance dropped from planes. Lebanon believe that a war will break out within six weeks involving Lebanon, Syria and possibly, Iran.

Thursday, April 25, 2013

UNPRECEDENTED Shortages Of Ammo, Physical Gold And Physical Silver



Panic Button By John On FlickrAll over the United States we are witnessing unprecedented shortages of ammunition, physical gold and physical silver.  Recent events have helped fuel a “buying frenzy” that threatens to spiral out of control.  Gun shops all over the nation are reporting that they have never seen it this bad, and in many cases any ammo that they are able to get is being sold even before it hits the shelves.  The ammo shortage has already become so severe that police departments all over America are saying that they are being told that it is going to take six months to a year to get their orders.  In fact, many police departments have begun to trade and barter with one another to get the ammo that they need.  Meanwhile, the takedown of paper gold and paper silver has unleashed an avalanche of “panic buying” of physical gold and physical silver all over the planet.  In the United States, some dealers are charging premiums of more than 25 percent over the spot price for gold and silver and they are getting it.  People are paying these prices even though they are being told that delivery will not happen for a month or two in many cases.  Some dealers are feverishly taking as many orders as they can, and they are just hoping that they will be able to get the physical gold and silver to eventually fill those orders.  Personally, I have never seen anything like this.  If things are this tight now, what is going to happen when the next major financial crisis strikes and people really begin to panic?


The shortages and rationing of ammunition at gun shops all over America just seem to keep getting worse.  The following is from an article by a gun owner down in Texas named Brad Meyer


If you’d like to see a normally sullen sales clerk chortle with derisive pleasure, just walk into just about any gun range, sporting goods store or mass merchandiser and try and buy a couple boxes of .22 ammunition.


Gun enthusiasts are up in arms about a nationwide shortage of ammunition. Handgun ammo in general is particularly difficult to find – and when you do find it, there are restrictions on the amount you can buy and how much you’re going to be paying for it.


While the list of hard to find ammo is long, .22 long rifle and 9mm handgun ammunition are particularly difficult to find in quantity. And the few places that have it are charging a premium rate and usually limiting purchases to one box, per person, per day.



Many gun owners try to find ammunition by going on the Internet, but things have gotten so tight that now any ammo that becomes available online is often gone within seconds


There are websites where people across the country post links to where ammunition is available – and it sells out within seconds. Not minutes or hours – seconds.



Unfortunately, all of this demand is also driving up prices.  Just check out what Meyer says is happening to the price of standard .22 ammo…


The demand is driving up the cost of ammunition. Six months ago, standard .22 ammo – the most common type of bullet produced in the world – could be had in bulk for around five cents apiece. It is now going for 50 cents or more on some websites – and people are paying it.



But this shortage is not just affecting private citizens.  According to Newmax, police departments all over the nation are dealing with ammo shortages unlike anything that they have ever seen before…


Sheriff Anthony DeMeo of Nye County, Nev., was told his department’s regular order of 50,000 rounds could take up to a year to arrive.


“This is the first time ever I’ve heard that there’s a problem with a law-enforcement agency getting ammo for their agency,” DeMeo told The Las Vegas Sun.


These departments are not alone. Law enforcement agencies in Oklahoma, Wisconsin, Arizona, and Georgia are among many that are having to limit how much they give their officers due to the shortage.



Could you imagine waiting for “up to a year” to get more ammunition?


A recent article posted on CNSNews.com had some more examples of police departments that are reporting that there is a massive wait to get more ammo…


Chief Pryor of Rollingwood, Texas says of the shortage:


“We started making phone calls and realized there is a waiting list up to a year.  We have to limit the amount of times we go and train because we want to keep an adequate stock.”


“Nobody can get us ammunition at this point,” says Sgt. Jason LaCross of the Bozeman, Montana police department.


LaCross says that manufacturers are so far behind that they won’t even give him a quote for an order.


“We have no estimated time on when it will even be available,” LaCross says.



This is insane.


What in the world could be causing such an ammo crunch?


Well, certainly the demand for guns and ammo has been trending up in recent years – especially since Barack Obama was elected.


But that doesn’t fully account for the shortages that we are witnessing at the moment.


So what is going on?


Well, some people believe that the federal government is responsible.  It has been reported that they have signed contracts to purchase “up to” 1.6 billion rounds of ammunition.  According to Forbes, this amount of ammunition would be enough to fight a “hot war” in America for 20 years


The Denver Post, on February 15th, ran an Associated Press article entitled Homeland Security aims to buy 1.6b rounds of ammo, so far to little notice.  It confirmed that the Department of Homeland Security has issued an open purchase order for 1.6 billion rounds of ammunition.  As reported elsewhere, some of this purchase order is for hollow-point rounds, forbidden by international law for use in war, along with a frightening amount specialized for snipers. Also reported elsewhere, at the height of the Iraq War the Army was expending less than 6 million rounds a month.  Therefore 1.6 billion rounds would be enough to sustain a hot war for 20+ years.  In America.



Could this be a way that the Obama administration is trying to restrict the amount of ammo that gets into the hands of private citizens?


That is what some people are suggesting.


According to talk radio show host Michael Savage, the ammo contracts that the federal government has signed give them priority over all other purchasers…


What Homeland Security is doing here is they’re issuing a contract to buy up to that amount of ammo if they want it…


It’s a way to control the amount of market that’s available on the commercial market at any time.


If they go to the ammo manufacturers and say give me 50 million rounds, give me another 30 million rounds… if they periodically do this in increments, they’re going to control how much ammo is available on the commercial market.


As part of their contract it stipulates in there that when the government calls and says give us another quantity, that everything they make has to go to the government priority one before any of it goes to the commercial market.


So, if  they get nervous, all they have to do is use that contract that they have in place… and they just say ‘give us some more.’



So whenever the government wants to tighten the supply of ammunition, all they have to do is invoke their contracts and order more for themselves.


Meanwhile, Obama appears to be doing other things to restrict the amount of ammo that gets into the hands of private gun owners.


For example, there are reports that the Obama administration plans to use executive orders to greatly restrict the importation of ammo from overseas.


So if anything, the shortage of ammunition is only going to get worse, not better.


Meanwhile, the “panic buying” of physical gold and physical silver that we have seen lately has really run down inventories.


According to Reuters, demand has become so intense that the U.S. Mint has suspended sales of gold coins for the first time since 2009…


The U.S. Mint said it has suspended sales of its one-tenth ounce American Eagle gold bullion coins as surging demand after bullion’s plunge to two-year lows depleted the government’s inventory. This marks the first time it has stopped selling gold product since November 2009, dealers said.



At the same time, precious metals dealers all over the country are scrambling to meet the voracious demand that they have been seeing this month.  The following is an excerpt from a letter that the CEO of Texas Precious Metals recently sent out to his customers…


The physical silver market is, in a word, ugly. There is no telling at this point when mint inventories will return to normal, but you can be sure it will not happen within the next 8 weeks. Most dealers, at this point, are selling their current customer demand forward, meaning they are selling product they do not presently have, expecting to pull from future mint allocations. Consequently, future allocations will face pressure from today’s demand. It is not my intent here to comment on the business practices of other companies, but I will say that no one can possibly predict future allocations at the time. The US mint, for example, releases its allocations weekly, and until then, dealers have no insight into allocation levels. Last week, we turned away business in excess of 100,000 ozs of silver because of stock depletion. However, we stand by the notion that it is better to lose a sale than lose a customer by delaying delivery two months (or more).



A similar thing is happening over in Asia.  According to the Financial Times, soaring demand has caused a shortage of gold at the Hong Kong Gold & Silver Exchange Society…


Haywood Cheung, president of the Hong Kong Gold & Silver Exchange Society, said the exchange had effectively run out of most of its holdings as members looked to meet a shortfall in supply amid rampant retail demand for gold products.


“In terms of volume, I haven’t seen this gold rush for over 20 years,” he told the Financial Times on Monday, adding that the exchange only had around twenty 1kg bars, and 100 five-tael bars left in its inventory. “Older members who have been in the business for 50 years haven’t seen such a thing.”



But most disturbing of all is what Jim Sinclair told King World News recently.  Apparently his friend went to get his gold out of a Swiss bank the other day and they refused to give it to him…


A person that I know with significant deposits in one of the primary Swiss banks, in allocated gold, wanted to take out his gold and was just refused on the basis of directives from the central bank….


They told him the amount was in excess of 200,000 Swiss francs and the central bank had instructed them not to do it because it has to do with anti-terrorism and anti-money laundering precautions.


I really wonder whether those are precautions or whether the gold simply isn’t there. Now you tell me that a London delivery has basically failed. It has to raise our suspicions that the lack of physical gold behind the paper gold is literally so severe that we are coming to understand that it is in fact not there.


The gold that people think is stored is not stored, and the inventory of the warehouses for exchanges may not be holding deliverable gold. There has always been speculation about whether or not the physical gold the US claims to store is in fact in those vaults.


The greatest train robbery in history might be all of the gold, and it would only be something like we have described above that would happen right before gold makes historic highs.


There simply is no gold behind the paper. One example is AMRO, a second is your example with Maguire, and a third is my dear friend who was refused his gold on the basis that its value was too high. Remember this friend of mine had his gold in an allocated account in storage at a major Swiss bank. I repeat, there is no gold.



So are we going to see more of this?


Will it soon become evident that there is simply not enough physical gold to cover all of the promises that the banks have made?


Jim Sinclair sure seems to think so.


In another interview, John Embry expressed similar sentiments to King World News…


This gets back to the tip of the iceberg when the Dutch Bank ABN AMRO came out and literally said that if you have allocated gold with us, you can’t have it.


That, to me, is a default, and it gets back to what Jim Sinclair related when one of his friends went to a Swiss bank and couldn’t get his allocated gold.  I mean that’s preposterous.  If it’s allocated it should be there, but it’s clearly not there.  I think this is the beginning of the end of the massive Ponzi scheme in paper gold.  I have been talking about this for some time, and it will have an enormous impact on future gold and silver prices.


When it becomes widely known that all of the people who think they own gold in fact don’t own gold, that it’s been hypothecated and re-hypothecated so many times that there are 100 claims for every single ounce of physical gold, that is when the prices of gold and silver will really go berserk to the upside, and at that point the shorts will have serious problems.”



If those that helped engineer the recent takedown of paper gold and silver were hoping to scare people away from physical gold and silver, then they failed miserably.  For even more on this, please see my recent article entitled “10 Signs The Takedown Of Paper Gold Has Unleashed An Unprecedented Global Run On Physical Gold And Silver“.


All of this is just another example why I encourage people to get prepared while times are still relatively good.


Once disaster strikes, it may be too late to get the things that you need.


Right now there are a whole lot of people out there wishing that they had stocked up on ammo when it was much cheaper and much more readily available.


We are moving into a time when everything that can be shaken will be shaken.  Use the stability provided by the false bubble of economic hope that we are experiencing right now as an opportunity to get prepared.  The next major wave of the economic collapse is rapidly approaching and time is running out.



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The Economic Collapse




UNPRECEDENTED Shortages Of Ammo, Physical Gold And Physical Silver

Tuesday, April 16, 2013

RPT-Fitch: Non-government Assets Remain Prominent within Repo Markets




Tue Apr 16, 2013 3:05am EDT



April 16 (Reuters) – (The following statement was released by the rating agency)


An updated Fitch Ratings review of collateral within the triparty repo market highlights some of the inherent liquidity risks associated with financing non-government securities through this short-term funding mechanism, as discussed in a report published today.


Repos remain an important funding mechanism for a range of asset classes. Federal Reserve Bank of New York (FRBNY) data indicates that, as of March 2013, approximately $ 1.83 trillion in assets were financed by the U.S. triparty repo market, a 10% increase since the beginning of 2012.


According to FRBNY data, structured finance represents approximately 4 – 5% of total U.S. repo collateral, equating to roughly $ 75 billion funded through this short-term credit market. The amount of structured finance funded through tri-party repo is about 10x the average daily trading volumes for these securities, an indication of the potential challenges should any reductions or disruptions to triparty repo funding for these assets occur.


Based on Fitch’s analysis of the disclosures of U.S. prime money market funds (MMFs), which provide unparalleled detail on repo collateral, structured finance repo is typically collateralized by deeply discounted, small-sized legacy securities. Over half of Fitch’s sample consists of subprime and Alt-A RMBS and CDOs.


Since money funds are short-term, highly risk-averse investors, a reduction in MMF appetite for this form of collateral could negatively affect the underlying asset class and repo borrowers more broadly.


Several senior government officials and agencies have highlighted the risks of using short-term wholesale funding, including repo, to finance less liquid assets. Fitch’s prior research demonstrated that repo funding for structured finance assets largely evaporated at the height of the U.S. credit crisis. Fitch believes this loss of liquidity likely contributed to the steep valuation declines in this asset class during that period.


For some money funds, structured finance repos provide a higher return opportunity in the ongoing low-yield environment. Repos also provide security dealers a source of leverage and cost-effecting funding for their structured finance securities.


The full report ‘Repos: Non-government Assets Still Prominent’ is available at ‘www.fitchratings.com.’ This report updates Fitch’s previous report ‘Repos: A Deep Dive in the Collateral Pool’ published August 2012.


Link to Fitch Ratings’ Report: Repos: Nongovernment Assets Still Prominent





Reuters: Bonds News




RPT-Fitch: Non-government Assets Remain Prominent within Repo Markets

Tuesday, March 5, 2013

Stock futures rise with Dow record within sight

An exterior shot of the New York Stock Exchange in New York December 20, 2012. REUTERS/Andrew Kelly

An exterior shot of the New York Stock Exchange in New York December 20, 2012.

Credit: Reuters/Andrew Kelly

PARIS | Tue Mar 5, 2013 5:33am EST

PARIS (Reuters) – Stock index futures pointed to a higher open on Wall Street on Tuesday, with futures for the S&P 500 up 0.23 percent, Dow Jones futures up 0.21 percent and Nasdaq 100 futures up 0.3 percent at 1021 GMT.

European shares gained ground in morning trade, with the benchmark index STOXX Europe 600 .STOXX hitting its highest level since mid-2008, as investors bet major central banks will keep monetary policy loose at meetings this week.

On the macro front, investors awaited February’s U.S. ISM non-manufacturing index, due at 1500 GMT. Economists in a Reuters survey forecast a reading of 55.0 versus 55.2 in January.

Markit’s Eurozone Composite PMI, a broad gauge of activity at thousands of companies across the 17-nation bloc, fell to 47.9 in February from 48.6 in January. The reading was better than expected, although still below the 50 mark dividing growth from contraction.

Tension over the U.S. fiscal crisis eased on Monday as President Barack Obama called more opposition lawmakers to find a way to stop $ 85 billion in damaging budget cuts and congressional Republicans announced a plan to prevent a government shutdown.

BP (BP.L), which lost its first deal to drill for oil in Russia’s Arctic to ExxonMobil (XOM.N), tried to negotiate a new deal with Russian state oil company Rosneft (ROSN.MM) and was again beaten to the punch by its U.S. rival.

The U.S. Department of Justice is seeking additional details of AMR Corp (AAMRQ.PK) and US Airways Group Inc’s (LCC.N) proposed $ 11 billion merger, which aims to create the world’s largest airline.

Japan’s aviation regulators said on Tuesday there are still “several steps” required before any battery fix for Boeing Co’s (BA.N) troubled Dreamliner jet can be approved. Boeing said this week it was ready to make fixes to its batteries if regulators approve the proposed solution.

General Motors Co (GM.N) and its China joint ventures sold 215,070 vehicles in the country in February, down 10.6 percent from a year earlier, the automaker said on Tuesday. GM makes vehicles in China in partnership with FAW Group and SAIC Motor Corp (600104.SS).

Impax Laboratories Inc (IPXL.O) said U.S. health regulators raised fresh concerns related to manufacturing practices at the drugmaker’s Hayward, California facility, sending its shares down more than 20 percent after the bell.

Stocks closed higher on Monday as investors staged a late-day rebound, extending a recent trend of buying on dips and pushing major indexes near all-time highs despite concerns about growth and China’s housing market.

The Dow Jones industrial average .DJI rose 38.16 points, or 0.27 percent, to 14,127.82 at the close. The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index .SPX gained 7.00 points, or 0.46 percent, to 1,525.20. The Nasdaq Composite Index .IXIC added 12.29 points, or 0.39 percent, to end at 3,182.03.

The S&P 500 has jumped about 7 percent so far in 2013 as investors continue to view equities as more attractively valued than other asset classes, allowing stocks to resist calls for a pullback even with few obvious catalysts to drive shares definitively higher.

(Reporting by Blaise Robinson; editing by Patrick Graham)



Reuters: Business News


Stock futures rise with Dow record within sight

Sunday, February 17, 2013

Biases, Biases Everywhere

Look around the investing world and biases are pervasive, from clustering estimates around company guidance (anchoring) to avoiding a stock that has already outperformed (mental accounts). And these biases make a difference.

Via Goldman Sachs,

Biases creep into the investment process at two important stages.

First, when forming estimates. The starting point (baseline) is key, and rather than using industry dynamics (an outside view), estimates may be influenced by company guidance (vulnerable to vested interests and dated industry dynamics given complex reporting lines), consensus estimates (themselves vulnerable to bias) or an emphasis on well-known newspaper articles. Adding detail to a scenario may make it more memorable, but the detail itself will reduce its likelihood (more is more fallacy). Data may be selected to support a pre-supposed thesis (confirmation bias) and presented as such (positive framing). And expectations may be altered by share price performance on the day of an announcement
(causal thinking).

 

Second, biases find their way into the investment decision. Even a bias-free upside calculation may be ignored and over-ridden when the share price is falling (herding with other fearful investors) or the company has been subject to a recent negative press story (recency bias, availability bias). Stocks may be held rather than sold because they’re in negative territory (loss aversion), the evidence for change doesn’t seem strong enough (status quo bias) or we think we knew it all along (hindsight bias). Low-growth segments of a business may look attractive when presented by a strong management team (halo effect) and the question ‘is the stock fairly valued’ may be interpreted as ‘do I like the stock’ when forming the investment case (substitution effect).

These biases really matter. Overcoming them and applying systematic rules can enable significant alpha creation, from creating a ‘quality control’ check on additions to a portfolio, to applying a stop-loss when stocks underperform.

From bias to error

These biases aren’t just interesting observations. They lead to estimate errors (garbage in, garbage out) and inappropriate stock recommendations. While many errors are analyst-specific, and hidden beneath the surface when aggregated within consensus, some persist from analyst to analyst and quarter to quarter. And we can measure them. We make three key observations:

Clustering at mediocrity

First, top-line variability is consistently underestimated. Consensus revenue growth forecasts will typically start in the 5%-6% range for the market at large, but the true outcome almost always turns out to be a significantly higher or lower level. While nine of the last ten years’ consensus revenue growth forecasts have been initially in the 5%-6% range, no year saw actual growth within that range. Analysts are reluctant to take a significant view on growth ahead of the date (conservatism, risk aversion), and/or are anchoring to economists who themselves are making the same mistake.

Put another way, over the last decade analysts have typically expected 50% of companies to report sales growth in a 2%-8% range, yet only 23% have actually delivered sales within this range.

Conservative in cash-use

Second, analysts will typically underestimate the extent of reinvestment via capex or M&A. Net debt used to fund this reinvestment has been revised upwards in seven of the last ten years, irrespective of the market environment. This may reflect conservatism and a lack of incentive to take a view on lumpy investment. It may also reflect anchoring to company guidance, which itself is disincentivised to announce investment plans early (take a look at the consensus 2013 and 2014 deleveraging assumption. In an environment of ageing assets and rising visibility, are companies really going to buck the trend and de-lever rather than reinvest?).

The wood from the trees

Third, analysts will frequently revise estimates post company results, but will less commonly revise estimates in the intervening period. As such, analysts will over-weight information presented by the company, but under-weight data on the broader market (GDP, inflation, unemployment) or the company’s position within it (pricing power, barriers to entry etc, potentially sourced via primary research). Analysts can miss out on the full picture, or the representative dataset, which can distort estimates.

The consequence… bifurcation underestimation…

The demonstrable biases above are probably just the tip of the iceberg. But, each one will have a meaningful impact on long-term earnings estimates, and these will discriminate from company to company. One group of stocks standing to benefit is those with profitable growth opportunities. Company managements will rarely disclose the full extent of future capex plans (conservatism, lack of incentive) and yet their commentary can be disproportionately weighted (manifestation #3 above) and as such the extent of reinvestment and releveraging will be underestimated (manifestation #2).

Who cares?

All this focus on estimates, but do they really matter? Can’t we just rely on average estimates but decent models? Unfortunately we can’t. Just as the conclusions of classical economic theory have been challenged, because the assumption of human rationality is unrealistic, so recommendations taken from inaccurate estimates (irrespective of models) can yield underperformance. To provide an example, buying Stoxx 600 companies on low P/E multiples (and selling high) would have generated c.25% annual alpha over the last decade using 12-month forward actual reported earnings, but would have lost c.3% per annum using consensus estimates. Interestingly, you would lose less money applying historical earnings (-2% alpha pa) than by using consensus estimates.

 

 

Simply put, biases make consensus estimates worthless.




Zero Hedge


Biases, Biases Everywhere

Saturday, February 9, 2013

US Air, AMR near $11 billion merger, deal seen within week : sources

A US airways plane takes off behind an American Airlines jet at Ronald Reagan National Airport in Washington April 23, 2012. REUTERS/Kevin Lamarque

A US airways plane takes off behind an American Airlines jet at Ronald Reagan National Airport in Washington April 23, 2012.

Credit: Reuters/Kevin Lamarque

NEW YORK | Sat Feb 9, 2013 8:45pm EST

NEW YORK (Reuters) – US Airways Group Inc and AMR Corp are nearing an $ 11 billion merger that would create the world’s largest airline and could announce a deal within a week, after resolving key differences on valuation and management structure, people familiar with the matter said.

Under terms of a deal that are still being finalized, US Airways Chief Executive Doug Parker would become CEO, while AMR’s Tom Horton would serve as non-executive chairman of the board until spring of 2014, when the combined company holds its first annual meeting, the sources said.

The deal would come more than 14 months after the parent of American Airlines filed for bankruptcy in November 2011, and would mark the last combination of legacy U.S. carriers, following the Delta-Northwest and United-Continental mergers.

The all-stock merger is expected to value the combined carrier at between $ 10.5 billion and $ 11 billion, and would give AMR creditors 72 percent of the ownership in the new company and US Airways shareholders the rest, they said.

The board of each airline is expected to meet in the middle of the coming week to vote on the proposed deal, and an announcement would likely come in the latter part of the week, the sources said, asking not to be named because the matter is not public.

Negotiations are continuing and could still be delayed or fall apart, they cautioned.

The companies had initially tried to schedule board meetings for Monday, the day that AMR’s creditors committee planned to convene, and had aimed to announce a deal as soon as Tuesday, sources told Reuters previously.

But AMR needed more time to finalize details and the boards of the two airlines are now not expected to gather until around Wednesday, the sources said.

The AMR creditors committee is still meeting on Monday in New York, as initially scheduled, and will continue discussions as the airlines finalize negotiations, they added.

A lawyer for the creditors committee declined to comment. Representatives for AMR and US Airways declined to comment.

A combination with US Airways would create the world’s top airline by passenger traffic and help the two carriers better compete with rivals United Continental Holdings and Delta Air Lines Inc.

A near-$ 11 billion valuation of the combined American-US Airways compares to some $ 12.4 billion market capitalization for Delta, and $ 8.7 billion for United Continental.

The currently planned equity split ratio between AMR creditors and US Airways shareholders implies a roughly $ 3 billion valuation for US Airways and some $ 7.5 billion to $ 8 billion valuation for AMR.

NEW AMERICAN AIRLINES

US Airways will follow through on its agreement with AMR labor unions last year that the combined carrier would be branded American Airlines and be based in Fort Worth, Texas, where AMR is currently based, sources said. US Airways has its headquarters in Tempe, Arizona.

As part of the merger, US Airways will also leave the Star Alliance to join the oneworld global airline alliance, of which American Airlines is an anchor member along with British Airways, the people familiar with the matter said.

The airlines are estimating that a merger will bring about $ 1 billion in revenue and cost benefits, they said.

Horton rebuffed an aggressive takeover push from US Airways early in the bankruptcy process, saying the airline preferred to exit court protection on its own and consider a deal later. But after several months of talks with its own creditors as well as with US Airways, Horton has softened his approach and agreed to consider all options.

A combined American-US Airways would provide the scale to match bigger rivals that are upgrading service and expanding international routes. The merged company would have revenue of $ 38.69 billion based on 2012 figures, ahead of United Continental which had revenue of $ 37.15 billion last year.

The new American would have a solid presence on the important U.S. East and West coasts and on North Atlantic routes, given American’s revenue-sharing joint venture with British Airways and Iberia.

(Reporting by Soyoung Kim in New York, additional reporting by Nick Brown and Karen Jacobs; Editing by Sandra Maler)


Reuters: Business News


US Air, AMR near $11 billion merger, deal seen within week : sources