Showing posts with label easy. Show all posts
Showing posts with label easy. Show all posts

Thursday, April 25, 2013

AMZN In Six Easy Charts


All one can say is: “LOL




Operating Profit and Net Income for Three Months Ended March 31, 2010-2013:




 


Amazon Free Cash Flow (Operating profits less CapEx):



 


Amazon Operating Margin %



 


Amazon LTM Operating Margin %



 


Amazon LTM Net Income %



 


Amazon Revenue growth (blue line) and number of total employees (red line)



Finally, the company’s operating profit outlook for Q2: ($ 340)MM to $ 10MM. Surely all of the above explains why the stock is experiencing its latest massive short squeeze after hours and why it now proudly trades at a forward P/E multiple of N/M.


(thank you DE Shaw algos).





    




Zero Hedge




AMZN In Six Easy Charts

Tuesday, April 9, 2013

Thursday, April 4, 2013

Fed"s George, defending dissent, says Fed policy too easy





EL RENO, Oklahoma | Thu Apr 4, 2013 1:44pm EDT



EL RENO, Oklahoma (Reuters) – Ultra-easy Federal Reserve policy risks financial instability and future inflation, Kansas City Federal Reserve President Esther George warned on Thursday, as she explained her decision to dissent at her second meeting in a row last month.


Noting that recent data on the state of the labor market had been encouraging, and the recovery seemed to be on track for a gradual recovery, George said growth remained slow.


“To be clear, I support an accommodative stance of monetary policy while the economy recovers and unemployment remains high,” she told a luncheon audience in this energy production and farming community to the west of Oklahoma City.


“But I view the current policies as overly accommodative, causing distortions and posing risks to financial stability and long-term inflation expectations with the potential to compromise future growth,” she said in prepared remarks.


George, who has dissented at both Fed policy-setting meetings this year, said her decision was driven by concern that “emergency” Fed action which remains in place four years after the end of the recession carried significant risks.


“In raising these issues, it is not my goal to prematurely withdraw support,” said George, who was the lone dissenter at both meetings. “It is critical, however, to ensure we transition from a crisis-type policy stance of aggressive easing to one of accommodation that allows markets, households and businesses to begin to normalize their expectations for interest rates.”


The central bank last month voted to maintain bond purchases at a $ 85 billion monthly pace while vowing to hold interest rates near zero until unemployment hit 6.5 percent, so long as the outlook for inflation did not rise above 2.5 percent. The U.S. jobless rate in February was 7.7 percent.


“I am concerned that with the adoption of thresholds for inflation and unemployment, the FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) has expressed some tolerance for having the inflation outlook exceed 2 percent,” George said.


With low unemployment and buoyant energy and commodity markets in its district, which includes Colorado, Kansas, Nebraska, Oklahoma, Wyoming, and parts of Missouri and New Mexico, the Kansas City Fed has spotlighted high farmland prices as a potential asset bubble, as well as low junk bond yields.


Other Fed officials, including Boston Fed chief Eric Rosengren, have argued recently that these potential spots of strength are best tackled by supervision, rather than easing back on monetary policy to dampen the entire economy. George pushed back hard against this suggestion.


“Asking bank regulators and supervisors, or the newly tasked monitors of financial stability, to single-handedly identify and contain the risks introduced by a highly accommodative monetary policy is not realistic,” she said.


(Editing by Andrea Ricci)





Reuters: Economic News




Fed"s George, defending dissent, says Fed policy too easy

Thursday, March 21, 2013

Analysis: Easy Fed softens fiscal policy punch on economy



Federal Reserve Board Chairman Ben Bernanke pauses while answering questions at a news conference at the Federal Reserve offices in Washington, March 20, 2013. REUTERS/Jonathan Ernst

Federal Reserve Board Chairman Ben Bernanke pauses while answering questions at a news conference at the Federal Reserve offices in Washington, March 20, 2013.


Credit: Reuters/Jonathan Ernst






WASHINGTON | Fri Mar 22, 2013 1:04am EDT



WASHINGTON (Reuters) – The Federal Reserve’s aggressive easing of monetary policy is proving surprisingly effective at blunting the blow to the U.S. economy from tighter fiscal policy, according to economists who have been scrambling to raise their growth forecasts.


Economists had feared higher taxes and deep government spending cuts would stunt growth in the first quarter, but a string of strong economic data has so far proven them wrong. And they mostly blame the Fed.


“Monetary policy is beginning to gain some traction here,” said Tom Higgins, global macro strategist at Standish Mellon Asset Management in Boston.


According to Higgins, if it were not for the monetary stimulus, the economy would probably be facing growth of a 1 percent annual rate or less. As it is, he expects growth to come in at a 2.5 percent pace in the first quarter.


The U.S. central bank has held overnight interest rates near zero since December 2008 and has pumped about $ 2.5 trillion into the economy by purchasing Treasury debt and mortgage-backed bonds in a bid to foster faster growth and lower unemployment.


On Wednesday, it recommitted to plans to buy $ 85 billion worth of bonds each month and said it would keep buying assets until it sees a significant improvement in the labor market.


Those actions have helped put the economy in better shape to deal with the end of a 2 percent payroll tax cut, higher tax rates for wealthy Americans and $ 85 billion in across-the-board government spending cuts known as the “sequester.”


The easy money stance has given a boost to interest rate sensitive sectors of the economy, such as autos and housing.


The commitment to easy policy also appears to be lifting business confidence, which in turn is underpinning job growth and the stock market. Nonfarm payrolls increased 236,000 in February and the jobless rate fell to a four-year low of 7.7 percent.


“The message from the data is that in the battle between fiscal drag and monetary stimulus, the Fed is winning,” said Jim O’Sullivan, chief U.S. economist at High Frequency Economics in Valhalla, New York.


Stunned by a surprisingly strong report on retail sales last week, most economists rushed to raise first-quarter growth estimates. JPMorgan pushed theirs up by an eye-catching eight-tenths of a percentage point to 2.3 percent, while Goldman Sachs increased theirs by three-tenths of a point to 2.9 percent.


Economic activity expanded at a meager 0.1 percent rate in the last three months of last year, the slowest pace since the first quarter of 2011.


MADE A MISTAKE


Economists also said they had been mistaken to believe that businesses would retrench if it became clear deep government spending cuts were going to take hold.


They said they had simply been drawing on lessons learned during the acrimonious fight in 2011 to raise the government’s borrowing limit, a battle that hit confidence hard.


“The chance we decided to take was for a more upfront impact from sequestration; in reality that is not what we are seeing,” said Adolfo Laurenti, deputy chief economist, Mesirow Financial in Chicago. “Businesses have taken it at a more leisurely pace.”


Indeed, a Deloitte Growth Enterprise Services survey of about 1,000 mid-market executives this month found little evidence the spending cuts were worrying businesses.


About 72 percent of respondents said sequestration would not affect their businesses and 91 percent said they had not put off hiring because of the cuts. That could be an indication of the confidence generated by the Fed’s willingness to aid the economy, economists say.


Also helping the economy is the fact that banks are starting to ease lending standards and household balance sheets have improved after being ravaged by the housing market’s collapse.


“What we have been seeing for a while is households have worked down their debt loads and they are now starting to expand their borrowing and, across the board, bank lending is increasing,” said Steve Cunningham, head of research at the American Institute for Economic Research in Great Barrington, Massachusetts.


“So monetary policy is becoming effective in that respect.”


Fed data this month showed household debt in the fourth quarter grew at its fastest pace since early 2008, while a measure of the burden of carrying debt sank to a record low.


In addition, consumer credit has increased solidly from last year through January of this year and banks in January reported stronger loan demand and easier credit standards.


Still, the economy is not out of the woods by any means.


Part of the expected bounce back in growth this quarter will come from a buildup in business inventories, which means second quarter growth could fall short of the January-March rate.


As a result of the economy’s firmer underlying strength, many analysts now estimate government budget cuts could shave off about 0.3 percentage point from GDP this year, half of what was predicted by the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office.


“The drag from sequestration is probably a little bit smaller than we thought a month ago,” said Mesirow Financial’s Laurenti. “We have a better economy that is in a better position to absorb a negative shock.”


(Reporting by Lucia Mutikani; Editing by Tim Ahmann and Phil Berlowitz)





Reuters: Economic News




Analysis: Easy Fed softens fiscal policy punch on economy

Thursday, March 7, 2013

Your own personal drone

If you go back and the read the congressional record for yesterday’s session of the U.S. Senate, you’ll see the word “drone” mentioned 489 times. Sen. Rand Paul held the floor for almost 13 hours yesterday, filibustering President Obama’s nomination of John Brennan to run the CIA.

Brennan was confirmed, but Sen. Paul was questioning how the administration uses drones, specifically against Americans. It was a debate about the military use of drone technology but there is a small and growing civilian market in drones.

No jet engines. No hellfire missiles.

So far, just cameras mounted on a thing that looks like an Erector Set with small rotors on top. About the size of the top of a small coffee table. You can get an idea of what these civilian drones look like by clicking through the slide show above.

“Ten years ago, this was unobtainable. You know, this stuff was military industrial stuff, tens of millions for each sensor and today it’s pennies and it’s in your pocket,” said Chris Anderson, the CEO of the drone-making firm 3D Robotics, who was until fairly recently the editor of Wired magazine.

Anderson said his business model is simple — “the beauty of hardware is that the business model could not be more head-slappingly obvious. You charge more than it costs. That’s it.”

The company posts their designs online and charge around $ 500 to $ 700 to purchase a pre-built drone from them. For Anderson, the future of drones is about looking beyond military use and the stigma attached to them.

“Remember the Internet used to be a military technology. Computers were invented to calculate artillery trajectory. We forget that. GPS was designed for those cruise missiles,” said Anderson. He points to a tradition civilians repurposing military technologies for personal uses. “And so if we do our job right, someday, people won’t associate drone use with military because the vast majority of drones that they see will be civilian.”

And when it comes to privacy concerns, he’s not worried. “How do you feel about camera phones? These are just camera phones with wings.”

So what will fill the R&D space of 3D Robotics in 10 years? Anderson hopes that first and foremost, we’ll forget that drones used to be military. Instead, drones will be commonplace — he likens them to a personal computer.

“We’re at the level right now where it’s clear that you can have such a thing as a personal drone, that drones can be cheap and easy,” he said.

Latest Stories on Marketplace.org


Your own personal drone

Saturday, March 2, 2013

Moving "up" isn"t as easy as you might think

The zip code you live in can have a big impact on your economic destiny. That notion is at the heart of a number of local and federal anti-poverty initiatives –  called “residential mobility” programs. They help low-income families move from neighborhoods with concentrated poverty, struggling schools, and few economic opportunities to middle class places where schools are often better — and, at least in theory, the opportunities are better too. But while there may be an economic pay off in an “opportunity area” down the road, in the short term a move to a very different kind of neighborhood involves a lot of adjustments, and many are not easy.  

Some adjustments are welcome, of course. Take squirrels. If you have lived in a middle class neighborhood for most of your life, you might take them, and their scampering, for granted. But when Valerie Love and her 12-year-old daughter, Jada, recently moved to Albany Park on the north side of Chicago, squirrels were the first things they noticed.

Jada remembers how her mom began throwing jelly beans to the squirrels.

“They was coming out from every direction,” Love laughs.

Their old neighborhood, says Jada, had a different kind of wildlife.  

“It had bugs,” she says.

While working on some home improvements — like putting up a closet door– they tell me about some of the other differences between their old neighborhood and their new one. In the old neighborhood, shooting deaths were not uncommon, and many buildings had been abandoned. Love says it “looked like somebody took a grenade and blew up half the blocks.”
 
Their new neighborhood is, Jada says, “peaceful and clean.” Her mom adds, “there’s no gangs hanging on the corner.”

Squirrels, peacefulness … these new experiences are welcome for Jada and her mother.  Love is also proud of her shiny, new kitchen, which she says the landlord used as a big selling point. “He said it’s a European-style kitchen, microwave over the stove and a stainless steel refrigerator,” says Love.

But there are other adjustments involved in their recent move that have been hard and uncomfortable. Love shows me her bedroom, where she’s taped plastic over the windows for extra insulation in the cold winter. When her landlord visited, she says, “He said he don’t like the plastic over the windows.” 

He didn’t like the blanket either, with the face of a tiger, that she’s hung over the doorway to the guest room. 

“He came here complaining about that. ‘You got a rug over the door.’ I said ‘a blanket, sir, a blanket,’” she says.
 
It’s an unspoken thing, but even after seven months in their new world, it’s easy to feel judged by a landlord over decorating choices and by new neighbors.

“In the back yard, everybody has grills on the porch,” says Love. “I don’t socialize too much with the neighbors in the building.”

She feels like an outsider.


Changing neighborhoods can change your life Helping poor families relocate to safer neighborhoods with better schools shown to improve mobility for children.


 

Jacqueline Williams also recently moved through a residential mobility program — to a middle class neighborhood in Chicago’s north side. It’s called Edgewater, and like the area where Valerie and Jada Love live, Williams says it doesn’t have a lot of other black residents.  

“The first tendency is to say, you know, I’m just going to keep to myself. But that’s not going to feel good for you and you might have a lot that that community can benefit from,” says Williams.
 
Williams says in some cases, she’s faced outright discrimination. She says two landlords told her they wouldn’t rent to tenants who had federal rent vouchers, and she’s filed legal complaints against them. Williams says even though she feels like she sticks out — for having subsidized rent, for being black- – she says she’s trying to make connections in her new community.   

“I patronize the boutiques and the restaurant. I think the alderman or something put on this annual Halloween type of thing. And there wasn’t that many African-Americans there. Now I can’t say that I developed friends there, but we got to meet people,” says Williams.

Tracey Robinson is a “mobility counselor” with a group called Housing Choice Partners in Chicago. She’s helped Jackie Williams — and people like her — to move, and adjust to their new neighborhoods. Robinson goes down a mental list of some of the common challenges clients run in to. One woman couldn’t get used to how quiet her new neighborhood was. Another was worried about leaving behind the friends and family from her old neighborhood, who helped out with babysitting. Though once she moved, she realized the trade-off was that in a safer neighborhood, her kids could do more stuff on their own.  
 
“Her grandchildren can actually ride the bus on their own now, and she’s glad she made the move,” says Robinson. “She don’t have to worry.”     

Robinson has first-hand experience with moving from a poor neighborhood to a middle class one. Her family went through a mobility program a few years ago and she still remembers the rocky beginnings.

“It was almost a month, we were getting the cold shoulder,” says Robinson.
 
She decided to tackle the problem head on.  

“Finally, I went up to one of my neighbors and I introduced myself, and I just let her know if we had offended her in any way, accept our apology. And that’s when she went to tell me about how the parking went,” says Robinson.
 
I turns out there was an unspoken rule on her new block that everybody got one parking spot in front of their own house. The Robinsons had been parking in front of other people’s homes.  

“If somebody had said ‘You know what, welcome to the neighborhood, we kind of let everyone park in front of our house, blah blah blah’, we would have ran with that. But, we — we didn’t know,” she says.

Now, because they asked, the Robinsons do know. Tracey Robinson says it was a little thing, but it made it so much easier to feel comfortable. She’s been friends with her neighbors ever since. 

Latest Stories on Marketplace.org


Moving "up" isn"t as easy as you might think

Saturday, February 23, 2013

Fed"s Bullard-Policy to stay easy despite exit chatter

President and CEO of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis James Bullard gestures during an interview at the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis June 8, 2011. REUTERS/Peter Newcomb

President and CEO of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis James Bullard gestures during an interview at the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis June 8, 2011.

Credit: Reuters/Peter Newcomb

Fri Feb 22, 2013 12:19pm EST

(Reuters) – The U.S. Federal Reserve will keep its monetary policy stance loose for a long while despite increasing signs of concern among policymakers about the potential costs of asset buying, a top Fed official said on Friday.

“Fed policy is very easy and it’s going to stay easy for a long time,” James Bullard, St. Louis Fed president, said in an interview with CNBC television.

Minutes released from the U.S. central bank’s policy meeting last month showed a number of officials think the Fed might have to slow or stop buying bonds before seeing the pickup in hiring which the program is designed to deliver. Bond buying is one of the key elements in the Fed’s monetary stimulus.

Many analysts nevertheless think the Fed’s leadership will determine the economic benefits of the maintaining the bond purchases for some time are likely to outweigh the financial risks.

Bullard, who has a vote this year on the Fed’s policymaking Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), has expressed caution about expanding the central bank’s balance sheet too far. He has advocated scaling back the bond purchases as the labor market improves.

On Friday, Bullard acknowledged more voices within the FOMC are pressing to scale back bond buying. Some Fed members are concerned their easy monetary policy could soon fuel inflation.

“The idea of tapering the program at some point in the future may be gaining some steam on the committee,” he said.

But Bullard also noted that the inflation rate is not threatening to breach the Fed’s 2 percent target.

“The Fed has room to maneuver because of this,” he said.

The Fed has more than tripled the size of its balance sheet since 2008 to around $ 3 trillion through a series of bond-buying programs. It opted in January to keep purchasing assets at an $ 85 billion monthly pace until the U.S. labor market outlook improved substantially.

In a policy shift late last year, the Fed committed to keeping interest rates near zero until the unemployment rate drops to 6.5 percent, as long as inflation is not forecast to go above 2.5 percent over a one- to two-year horizon. The jobless rate stood at 7.9 percent in January.

While many analysts expect the Fed to keep its bond-buying program in place throughout 2013, some worry this could fuel asset bubbles. Bond-buying programs in other countries are also seen as exacerbating this risk.

“I don’t think they (in the Fed) are vigilant in terms of other central banks and their quantitative easing policies,” Bill Gross, founder and co-chief investment officer of bond giant PIMCO, told the same CNBC program. “And I don’t think they are vigilant in terms of asset prices.”

(Reporting by Pedro Nicolaci da Costa; editing by Chizu Nomiyama, G Crosse)


Reuters: Economic News


Fed"s Bullard-Policy to stay easy despite exit chatter