The usually optimistic bunch of salubrious sell-side strategists are mixed in their perspective of the latest debacle to roll ashore from Europe. Most, if not quite all, expect short-term ‘nervousness’ and a few hardy Pollyannas remain though looking at the other end of the rainbow – once again because, drum roll please, “central banks will respond.” Adding to our summary yesterday, Bloomberg adds another 13 sell-side opinions (and Moody’s), it the diversity of response is perhaps best glimpsed with one who “does not expect savers to be fearful of a confiscation of their savings and spark a run on banks” for some whimsical reason and another states unequivocally, “No sensible foreign depositor would continue to keep money in a banking system that just took nearly 10% of his deposit without any notice.“
Via Bloomberg,
* Moody’s
Cyprus bailout negative for depositors across Europe; implication for sovereigns unclear; Cyprus has negative implications for EU banks creditors
May hurt bank ratings across Europe; shows EU will act to monetary Union
* HSBC
Decision to impose levy could trigger market contagion
* Nomura
Sees more downside risk for EUR/USD, EUR/CHF on Cyprus
Is buying 1.30 EUR put/USD call with 3-month tenor at Asia open to gain exposure to downside move; also cutting long EUR/CHF spot positions until there is greater clarity
* Rabobank
Yield hunt may mean risk-off tone may be short-lived; in the contagion stakes, Cyprus has clear potential to “punch far above its weight”
* Saxo Bank
Decision to impose level “very good for gold” and safe-haven countries like Singapore and Switzerland and “economically more healthy” Scandinavian countries that don’t use the euro should also benefit
* Citigroup
There is room to amend Cyprus agreement
* AMP Capital Investors
Cyprus situation could “lead to some worries regarding renewed contagion across Europe”
Compared with banks in Italy, Spain and Ireland, “the risk of the same occurring is extremely low and close to zero, but we could go through a short period of nervousness until we see how the rest of Europe responds and the ECB responds”
* Barclays
Decision to impose losses on Cypriot depositors is the latest sign of an “ominous trend” for bondholders
* Brown Brothers Harriman
“We do not expect savers to be fearful of a confiscation of their savings and spark a run on banks”
* BTIG
Bailout likely to shake investors’ recent “unshakable confidence” in ever higher prices
* Cumberland Advisors
“No sensible foreign depositor would continue to keep money in a banking system that just took nearly 10% of his deposit without any notice”
* Goldman
While controversial, involvement of non-residents in bailout was foreseeable, and “sends signal” to taxpayers in other nations that domestics won’t bear costs alone
Contagion potential – The Cypriot tax is certain to prompt depositors in GIIPS banks to assess two issues: (1) the probability of savings participating in bank clean-ups (“bail-in”) and (2) perceiving their savings as a potential base for a “wealth tax”.
* JPMorgan
Difficult to overstate the extend of popular anger in Cyprus; return to “more stressful” episode of debt crisis possible
* SocGen
Bailout may be crisis trigger; “this will probably go down as an ill thought out rescue plan with consequences for peripheral Europe”
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Sell-Side Strategists Summarize Cypriot Tsunami
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