Before everyone gets too excited about the “great rotation” that still remains a ghost, keep in mind that the entire curve is still >1 standard deviation below its historical mean (from 1990 in this case).
There is a long way to go before any meaningful rotation actually takes place, and even if the fed continues to monetize, we should at least see a mean reversion before getting too excited.
Also, keep an eye on the 10s30s, this may be a subtle inflation smoke signal, even as the fed has tried to grind yields lower & lower.
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Some Treasury Yield Context
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