Thursday, February 28, 2013

Why Wall Street pay won"t be curbed, ever

The European Union is moving to place an iron leash on bank pay. New rules approved Thursday would put strict caps on bankers’ bonuses. That’s Europe’s latest response to widespread anger at financial firms in the wake of the economic crisis.

Americans are pretty angry at bankers too, but there’s practically no chance of something like this happening here. Like diesel cars, techno music and soccer, capping bank bonuses is one of those things Europe loves that just don’t fare quite as well in America.

“We have not in the States, at least so far, really gone down a path of capping pay,” says Stanford professor Dave Larcker, who studies corporate pay. “I’d be very surprised if you sort of see hard caps come out in the States.”

Wall Street loves the ability to reward or punish with bonuses. A trading blunder cost JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon half his bonus year. Still, the $ 10 million bonus he received was nearly seven times his salary. The EU rule would limit bonuses to no more than double base pay.

Nothing as extensive as the European proposal has moved forward in the U.S. But some things have changed on Wall Street since the financial meltdown. All-cash bonuses are largely a relic of the past.

“A few years ago, if I said your bonus was $ 100, you got $ 100,” explains Joe Sorrentino, managing director at Steven Hall & Partners, which advises Wall Street firms and others on compensation. “Now if I say your bonus is $ 100, well, you may get $ 25 or $ 50 now in cash and the rest is gonna be deferred in either stock or cash. And you may not see that for three years from now.”

That shift is to prevent bankers from doing crazy things that drive big bonuses in the short term, but hurt their company, or perhaps humanity, in the long term.

There’s also a problem with capping bonuses. It’s kind of pointless.

“Human ingenuity is boundless,” says Georgetown finance professor Sandeep Dahiya. “The minute the rules are written, you can expect everyone to pore over them and find any loophole.”

For example, if bonuses are capped, firms can just juice up salaries. But that would mean guaranteeing pay before getting results. And that’s something Wall Street hates.

So does the City. Banks in London’s financial district are complaining about the planned EU restrictions. If the rules go through, they would create a compensation gap that could drive talented and rationally greedy European bankers to competitors in the U.S. and Asia.

Kai Ryssdal: The European Union’s decided to do something — to try to do something, anyway — about how much bankers get paid. There were some new rules approved today to put strict caps on bonuses.

We’ve tried to limit executive compensation over here, too. But it’s turning out that no matter where you are, it’s hard to do. Marketplace’s Mark Garrison explains.


Mark Garrison: Diesel cars, techno music, soccer. Some things Europe loves just don’t fare as well in America. Add to that list capping bank bonuses. Stanford professor Dave Larcker specializes in corporate pay.

Dave Larcker: I’d be very surprised if you sort of see hard caps come out in the States.

Wall Street loves the ability to reward or punish with bonuses. A big trading blunder cost JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon half his bonus last year. Still, Dimon’s $ 10 million bonus is nearly seven times his salary. The EU rule would limit bonuses to no more than double base pay. Now, it’s not that nothing’s changed in America.

Joe Sorrentino: A few years ago, if I said your bonus was $ 100, you got $ 100.

Joe Sorrentino is with Steven Hall & Partners, which advises Wall Street firms and others on compensation.

Sorrentino: Now if I say your bonus is $ 100, well, you may get $ 25 or $ 50 now in cash and the rest is gonna be deferred in either stock or cash. And you may not see that for three years from now.

That shift is to prevent bankers from doing crazy things that drive big bonuses in the short term, but hurt their company, or perhaps humanity in the long term. There’s also a problem with capping bonuses. It’s kinda pointless.

Sandeep Dahiya: Human ingenuity is boundless.

Georgetown finance professor Sandeep Dahiya.

Dahiya: The minute the rules are written, you can expect everyone to pore over them and, you know, find any loophole and any way.

If bonuses are capped, firms will just juice up salaries. And that means guaranteeing pay before getting results. And that’s something Wall Street hates. In New York, I’m Mark Garrison, for Marketplace.

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Why Wall Street pay won"t be curbed, ever

Nigel Farage on collapsing Eurozone, part1/2 (28Jun12)

Part 1 of 2: UKIP party leader Nigel Farage talks about the cumbling Eurozone, Euro currency, and how the Euro Commies are trying to steal the last bits of freedome and democracy in Europe to salvage their Communist / New World Order dream of control of the people. Transmitted on 28 June 2012, but due to timezone differences, 29th June in the UK. Recorded from RT, Capital Account, 29 June 2012.


Nigel Farage on collapsing Eurozone, part1/2 (28Jun12)

Fed"s Evans sees economy achieving "escape velocity" by 2014

Chicago Federal Reserve Bank President Charles Evans speaks during the Sasin Bangkok Forum July 9, 2012. REUTERS/Sukree Sukplang

Chicago Federal Reserve Bank President Charles Evans speaks during the Sasin Bangkok Forum July 9, 2012.

Credit: Reuters/Sukree Sukplang

DES MOINES, Iowa | Thu Feb 28, 2013 8:26pm EST

DES MOINES, Iowa (Reuters) – The U.S. economy should emerge from the doldrums next year as long as the Federal Reserves sticks to its super-easy monetary policies long enough to give it the traction it needs, a top Fed official said on Thursday.

“I am optimistic that we have appropriate policies in place to help the economy achieve escape velocity by 2014,” Chicago Fed President Charles Evans said in remarks prepared for delivery to the CFA Society of Iowa.

“But we need to be careful not to undermine our own policies and remove accommodation prematurely, as the Japanese did.”

Evans has been a key player in shaping the Fed’s ultra-easy policy stance, and was the first to champion the idea of tying Fed policy to specific levels of unemployment and inflation.

In December the Fed adopted his plan, saying it would keep interest rates near zero until the unemployment rate drops to at least 6.5 percent, as long as the inflation outlook does not top 2.5 percent. Unemployment is currently at 7.9 percent.

The Fed is also buying $ 45 billion in Treasuries and $ 40 billion in mortgage bonds per month, in its third round of so-called quantitative easing, and has said it would continue the purchases until it sees substantial improvement in the labor market outlook.

Fed officials backed QE3 in an 11-1 vote in January, but minutes of that meeting released last week suggested a growing number of officials had concerns about the risks and costs of the central bank’s policy course.

On Thursday, Evans made clear he was not among those skeptics, brushing off warnings of “froth” in financial markets as speculative, and calling high inflation a very unlikely outcome of current Fed policies because wage pressures are all but absent.

Instead, Evans focused on the benefits of current Fed policy, saying he sees evidence they are working in the rise in the stock market, easier credit conditions and an increase in housing and car sales.

Evans forecast the U.S. economy would grow at about 2.5 percent to 3 percent this year, speeding up to between 3.5 percent and 4 percent next year. Those expectations, he said, are predicated on the Fed keeping up its accommodative stance.

Unemployment will likely fall to close to, or a little below, 7 percent by the end of next year and to 6.5 percent by mid-2015.

On Thursday, Evans warned against “complacency,” saying the economy still faces downside risks and urging the central bank not to withdraw its easy policies too soon, especially because of the downside risks posed by potential U.S. fiscal tightening.

Japan’s central bank failed to be aggressive enough, he suggested, miring that country in slow growth and deflation that serves as a warning for U.S. monetary policy.

“It is the specter of repeating the Japanese experience that now keeps me up at night,” Evans said.

(Reporting by Ann Saphir; editing by Todd Eastham)


Reuters: Economic News


Fed"s Evans sees economy achieving "escape velocity" by 2014

Asian shares capped by China PMI slip, U.S. budget worry

Visitors cast their shadows on the logo of the Tokyo Stock Exchange, prior to a ceremony marking the end of trading in 2012 at the Tokyo Stock Exchange in Tokyo December 28, 2012. REUTERS/Kim Kyung-Hoon

1 of 8. Visitors cast their shadows on the logo of the Tokyo Stock Exchange, prior to a ceremony marking the end of trading in 2012 at the Tokyo Stock Exchange in Tokyo December 28, 2012.

Credit: Reuters/Kim Kyung-Hoon

TOKYO | Fri Mar 1, 2013 12:10am EST

TOKYO (Reuters) – Asian shares edged down on Friday, with manufacturing data from China that broadly met expectations helping to somewhat taper sentiment burdened by worries over the economic fallout from Italy’s political confusion and likely U.S. spending cuts.

Renewed confidence that major central banks will keep taking stimulative steps to support their economies, which lifted a global equities index overnight, underpinned prices.

China’s February official purchasing managers’ index (PMI) came in at its slowest pace in four months at 50.1, slightly below a 50.2 Reuters poll consensus and the 50.4 posted in January, but broadly within expectations.

A private survey showed the final HSBC PMI fell to 50.4 after seasonal adjustments from January’s two-year high of 52.3, in line with a flash reading in late February, supporting expectations that China’s modest economic revival requires no change in monetary policy for now.

“The above-50 reading of the PMI still indicates that the economy is on an expansion mode. In our view, even though headwinds remain, China’s GDP growth will still likely come in around 8 percent in Q1, supported by faster investment growth in western and central Chinese provinces due to the renewed urbanization drive,” economists at ANZ said in a note.

The MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan .MIAPJ0000PUS eased 0.2 percent, after ending February up 0.5 percent, showing muted reaction to Chinese data.

Australian shares .AXJO slipped 0.5 percent, pulling back from 4-1/2-year highs touched in the previous session, as big miners lost ground on lower metal prices. South Korean markets are closed on Friday for a public holiday.

The Australian dollar, which is sensitive to data from China, Australia’s largest trading partner, was steady around $ 1.0213.

Japan’s Nikkei stock average .N225 eased 0.2 percent, trimming some of earlier losses as expectations for strong reflationary measures from the Bank of Japan in coming months lent support. .T

Data on Friday showed Japanese companies cut spending on plant and equipment in October-December by 8.7 percent from the same period last year, down for the first time in five quarters amid a slump in exports, showing the world’s third-largest economy was still struggling to find a solid footing.

In contrast, a drop in new U.S. claims for jobless benefits last week and a sharp rise in factory activity in the Midwest in February suggested the U.S. economy is improving.

The relative outperformance of the world’s leading economy over Japan’s may soon turn the Japan-based yen selling into U.S.-led dollar buying, giving a fresh push higher in the dollar/yen, traders say.

The dollar was steady around 92.56 against the yen.

One factor that could cloud such a positive outlook is the uncertainty over the possible extent of economic damage from automatic across-the-board “sequestration” spending cuts in the United States.

The International Monetary Fund said on Thursday it would likely cut its 2013 growth forecasts for the United States by at least a 0.5 percentage point if the cuts are fully implemented. The IMF now projects that the U.S. economy will grow 2 percent this year.

“Financial markets are eerily calm about the issue. Nobody is talking about the sequestration, and I worry about the seeming lack of interest when market sentiment is far from stable after sharp swings following the Italian election,” said Hiroshi Maeba, head of FX trading Japan at UBS in Tokyo. He said reaction, if any, will likely come in equities and bonds first and spill over to forex, hitting risk-sensitive currencies which may possibly underpin the dollar.

U.S. crude fell 0.4 percent to $ 91.69 a barrel, after earlier hitting a 2013 low of $ 91.43.

Brent crude fell 0.2 percent to $ 111.13 after falling to a six-week low of $ 110.86 earlier. Oil prices were weighed by concerns about the global economy and the strength of demand. <O/R>

Spot gold inched up 0.1 percent to $ 1,581.71 an ounce after dropping more than 1 percent on Thursday and ending February with its fifth straight monthly drop, the longest string of monthly declines since 1996. <GOL/>

The euro was up 0.1 percent to $ 1.3070, but near a seven-week trough of $ 1.3018 plumbed earlier in the week.

(Editing by Jacqueline Wong)



Reuters: Business News


Asian shares capped by China PMI slip, U.S. budget worry

Nobody Can"t See Nothin"

As expected (in this corner but certainly not from economic cheerleaders masquerading as economists), eurozone retail sales are plunging across the board, even in Germany. Let’s take a look at a few key reports.

France

The Markit France Retail PMI shows sharpest drop in sales for six months.

Key Points:
  • Sales down markedly on both monthly and annual measures
  • Targets missed to greatest extent in series history
  • Purchasing activity falls at sharpest rate since July 2012 

Summary:

The French retail sector was caught in a deepening downturn during February. Sales fell sharply on both a monthly and annual basis, while there was a survey-record shortfall versus previously set plans. Retailers’ gross margins continued to be squeezed by a combination of higher purchasing costs and strong competitive pressures. Stock levels and employment meanwhile both declined. The headline Retail PMI® registered 44.3 during February. The latest reading was down from 47.0 in January, and signalled the steepest month-on-month drop in sales since August 2012.

Gross margins in the French retail sector decreased further in February. The rate of contraction was marked and the sharpest since last October. Survey respondents indicated that margins had been squeezed by a combination of intense competitive pressures and higher purchasing costs.

Italy

The Markit Italy Retail PMI shows Retail sector remains firmly in contraction.

Key points:
  • Monthly rate of decline in sales slowest since last September, though still steep overall
  • Slowest decline in employment for two-and-a-half years
  • Further substantial drop in stock levels

Summary:

The seasonally adjusted Markit Italian Retail PMI® climbed to a five-month high of 40.6 in February, from January’s reading of 37.5. This signalled that the monthly rate of decline in sales eased since the start of the year, but nevertheless still remained sharp overall.

Compared with the situation 12 months previously, Italian retail sales were down sharply in February. The year-on-year rate of decline was well in excess of the long-run series average, and slightly faster than in the preceding survey period. Retailers recorded a marked degree of underperformance during the latest survey period, with sales in February well down on levels previously planned for. Moreover, the difference between actual and targeted sales was greater than in the opening month of the year.

Germany

The Markit Germany Retail PMI shows Renewed decline in German retail sales.

Key Points:
  • Retail PMI below 50.0 level for second time in three months
  • Sharpest year-on-year sales decline since April 2010
  • Sales fall short of plans by widest margin since January 2012

Summary:

The seasonally adjusted Germany Retail PMI dipped back below the neutral 50.0 value in February. At 47.6, down from 51.0 in January, the latest reading matched that seen in December and was the joint-lowest for ten months. Survey respondents commented on subdued household demand and lower consumer footfall in relation to unfavourable weather conditions in February.

Sales down sharply on a year-on-year basis

February data indicated that like-for-like sales were down sharply compared to one year earlier. The index measuring retail sales on an annual basis in Germany pointed to the fastest pace of contraction since April 2010. Around 40% of survey respondents noted a drop in sales compared to February 2012, while just one-in-four signalled an increase.

Targets missed to greatest extent in just over a year

Retailers in Germany signalled that their sales in February fell short of targets, and to the greatest degree since January 2012. Over three times as many respondents (46%) reported that sales were below expectations as those that exceeded their initial targets (13%). Although sales disappointed in February, retailers are optimistic on balance about the prospects for sales in one month’s time.

Eurozone Composite

The Markit Eurozone Retail PMI shows Record year-on-year fall in Eurozone retail sales in February.

Key points:
  • Fastest annual drop in revenues in nine-year survey history
  • Broad-based weakness by country
  • Retailers’ stocks of goods fall at strongest rate in over three years

Summary:

Markit’s Eurozone retail PMI® data for February signalled a record year-on-year fall in retail sales revenues in the single currency area. Sales were also down sharply compared with January, as signalled by a PMI reading of 44.5, down from 45.9.

Retail Sales Germany, France, Italy

Germany registered a fourth decline in sales in the past seven months, while French retail sales fell for a survey-record eleventh consecutive month and at the fastest pace since last August. Italy continued to show the strongest overall decline, albeit the weakest since last September. All three countries registered stronger year-on-year falls in retail sales in February. The annual rates of decline in Germany, France and Italy were the
sharpest in 34, nine and two months respectively.

Abysmal (And Going to Get Worse)

I certainly see no reason to change my forecast that eurozone GDP will contract far greater than economists foresee, led by France and Germany.

As noted a month ago, the “Core” of Europe was down to Germany. Analysts and economists will soon discover “Europe is Rotten to the Core”

Mario Draghi did not save Europe with his LTRO program, all he did was delay the inevitable, and at a huge cost too.

One cost can be seen in the Italian elections where voters have had enough of Super Mario Monti, sweeping the technocrat prime minister out of office in a massive rout led by a surge in eurosceptic vote for Beppe Grillo. (See Youth Vote Propels Five Star Movement Into First Place as Largest Political Party in Italy).

In France, and also as expected in this corner Unemployment Highest Since 1997. French GDP estimates have been twice revised lower. They will be revised lower yet again.

How much more pain Greece, Italy, and Spain are willing to take remains to be seen, but it isn’t infinite.

Eventually Will Come a Time 

I repeat my November 23, 2011 warning Eventually, Will Come a Time When ….

Eventually, there will come a time when a populist office-seeker will stand before the voters, hold up a copy of the EU treaty and (correctly) declare all the “bail out” debt foisted on their country to be null and void. That person will be elected.

All it will take, is for one charismatic person, timing social mood correctly, to say precisely one right thing at exactly the right time. It will happen.

When that does happen, expect to hear “Nobody could possibly have seen this coming!”

Clearly we need a new definition of “nobody” because “nobody” saw the rise of Beppe Grillo’s Five Star Movement, and of course “nobody” saw the housing crash coming either.

Clearly, nobody can’t see nothin’.

Mike “Mish” Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

“Wine Country” Economic Conference Hosted By Mish
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Mish’s Global Economic Trend Analysis


Nobody Can"t See Nothin"

Getting America to eat more plants, one restaurant at a time

This may not come as a huge surprise to most of you, but a study out of Oxford University last month found that vegetarians are 32 percent less likely to be hospitalized, or die, from heart disease than are meat-eaters.

In fact, Americans are eating less beef, chicken and pork than in the past. Some of it might be the rising cost of meat, but it’s also likely that news of the downsides to a carnivorous diet are getting to us. We are realizing that veggies and grains are better for you.

Thus the relatively quick success of the Santa Monica, Calif.-based fast food chain Veggie Grill. It serves up what the industry calls a plant-based diet. That means no animal fat — no butter, no milk, no eggs. Its burgers and chicken sandwiches are made from soy, and the flavor is catching on.

There are 16 outlets on the West Coast, including a handful in Oregon and Washington. Greg Dollarhyde is the CEO and, buoyed by healthy sales and $ 20 million in financing, he plans to double the number of restaurants in the next 18 months.

“The plan is to go up and down the West Coast because it’s the same time zone and easy to get to,” said Dollarhyde. “But we get all sorts of emails of ‘When are you coming to New York? When are you coming to Boston? When are you coming to Dallas?’”

But how do take a plant-based diet to, say, Chicago — home of the deep dish pizza and the Union Stock Yards? Dollarhyde has one word: taste. As long as the food tastes good and familiar, people will come.

But he will make sure not to grow too fast. “The biggest concern is when you change time zones,” Dollarhyde explained. “If you are on the West Coast and you go to the East Coast, you are just getting up and they are at lunch. Then when you are at lunch, they can’t find you. And if something goes wrong, that is a long plane ride to fix it.”

That said, however, he does hope to have a Veggie Grill in New York sometime next year.

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Getting America to eat more plants, one restaurant at a time

Media Hype Over Sequester Cuts

President Obama is playing the media like a fiddle (more accurately like the fools they are). Countless mainstream media articles talk about the devastation that is sure to follow if the sequester cuts take place. Obama has even hyped this us with threats of cuts on vaccinations for children.

Here is one example of the hype: New crisis looms as budget cuts hit US on Friday.

Billions of dollars in harsh budget cuts are hitting the U.S. government on Friday, and officials are conceding that last-minute moves by both Democrats and Republicans in Congress to soften the blow are doomed.

Economists and lawmakers alike agree that the cuts, the potential shutdown and the country’s series of fiscal crises overall are hurting the country’s shaky comeback from the Great Recession, and the effects will be felt around the world. Both political parties have said the cuts — of 5 percent to domestic agencies and 8 percent to the military— could inflict major damage to government programs and the economy at large.

Obama, speaking to a group of business executives Wednesday night, said the cuts would be a “tumble downward” for the economy, though he acknowledged it could takes weeks before many Americans feel the full impact of the budget shrinking.

Domestic agencies would see their budgets frozen almost exactly as they are, which would mean no money for new initiatives such as cybersecurity or for routine increases for programs such as low-income housing.

“We’re not going to do that,” said Sen. Tom Harkin, a Democrat.

Budget Freeze Oh My!

My friend Tim Wallace pinged me today with a few thoughts. …

Hi Mish

In 2006 the Federal spending was $ 2.6 trillion. In 2008 the budget had gone up to $ 2.9 trillion, an increase of “only” 12.2% in two years. Then, the “financial crisis” hit and a “one time” increase in the budget was put in place to bail out all the political cronies.

That “one time” increase ballooned the budget to $ 3.5 trillion, an increase of 18% over 2008, but an increase of 32.6% over 2006!

So, what happened to this “one time” increase? Did it go away the next year? Of course not!

Federal spending has remained above $ 3.5 trillion since, and is even up again to about $ 3.6 trillion. This is 33% more than 6 years ago.

Suppose inflation was the basis for budget increases. Then let’s use the joke of a 2% a year inflation rate that Bernanke claims. On that basis, spending based on 2000′s numbers would be $ 2.3 trillion! If you double the rate of inflation to 4% a year since 2000, spending would be $ 2.9 trillion ($ 600 billion less – each year than the current budget).

Clearly the problem is spending yet allegedly mere decrease of $ 85 billion (most of it back-loaded) is too much for Obama and Bernanke.

Tim

This media hype over sequestration is ridiculous.

Mike “Mish” Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

Mish’s Global Economic Trend Analysis


Media Hype Over Sequester Cuts

Cuts imminent, Senate rejects stopgap efforts

WASHINGTON (AP) — Squabbling away the hours, the Senate swatted aside last-ditch plans to block $ 85 billion in broad-based federal spending reductions Thursday as President Barack Obama and Republicans blamed each other for the latest outbreak of gridlock and the administration readied plans to put the cuts into effect.
Business Headlines

Cuts imminent, Senate rejects stopgap efforts

VIDEO: Daily Dividend Report: PLD, TXT, VHI, NBR, LEG

Prologis Incorporated (PLD) maintained its quarterly dividend of 28 cents per share. The dividend is payable on March 29, 2013 to common stockholders of record at the close of business on March 12, 2013Shares are higher by nearly nine tenths of a percent.

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VIDEO: Daily Dividend Report: PLD, TXT, VHI, NBR, LEG

VIDEO: Dow tries, then fails at new record

Summary of business headlines: Markets slip after two-day buying spree; Economy relatively strong ahead of sequestration; Groupon head loses his CEO coupon; New Treasury Secretary begins tenure; retail results underwhelm. Conway G. Gittens reports.

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VIDEO: Dow tries, then fails at new record

VIDEO: Daily Dividend Report: PLD, TXT, VHI, NBR, LEG

Prologis Incorporated (PLD) maintained its quarterly dividend of 28 cents per share. The dividend is payable on March 29, 2013 to common stockholders of record at the close of business on March 12, 2013Shares are higher by nearly nine tenths of a percent.

Thanks for checking us out. Please take a look at the rest of our videos and articles.


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VIDEO: Daily Dividend Report: PLD, TXT, VHI, NBR, LEG

VIDEO: Dow tries, then fails at new record

Summary of business headlines: Markets slip after two-day buying spree; Economy relatively strong ahead of sequestration; Groupon head loses his CEO coupon; New Treasury Secretary begins tenure; retail results underwhelm. Conway G. Gittens reports.

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VIDEO: Dow tries, then fails at new record

Founder and CEO Andrew Mason fired from Groupon

This final note as we leave off today. The end of the beginning, perhaps, at the once-charmed daily discounter Groupon.

It’s been a rough ride for the company almost since the day it went public. Shares are down 75 percent over the past year. 24 percent just today.

Which will make what I’m about to tell you completely predictable. Founder and CEO Andrew Mason is leaving the company. The best part was his farewell email. “After four and a half intense and wonderful years as CEO of Groupon, I’ve decided that I’d like to spend more time with my family. Just kidding — I was fired today. If you’re wondering why… you haven’t been paying attention.”

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Founder and CEO Andrew Mason fired from Groupon

Analysis: U.S. deal has Brazil"s Embraer flying high in defense

Super Tucano combat planes fly during a ceremony to mark the 93rd anniversary of the Colombian Air Force at the military base in Bogota November 9, 2012. REUTERS/John Vizcaino

Super Tucano combat planes fly during a ceremony to mark the 93rd anniversary of the Colombian Air Force at the military base in Bogota November 9, 2012.

Credit: Reuters/John Vizcaino

SAO PAULO | Thu Feb 28, 2013 3:24pm EST

SAO PAULO (Reuters) – With its first-ever U.S. military contract in hand, the defense unit of Brazilian planemaker Embraer SA (ERJ.N) has finally hit the big time, establishing itself as a global player while the rest of the industry struggles with shrinking budgets.

The light attack plane that Embraer will supply for the United States in Afghanistan handily illustrates how the company, which is best known for the regional jets it supplies to airlines such as JetBlue Airways Corp (JBLU.O), is climbing the ranks of the world’s top 100 arms dealers.

A rugged design and low cost make Embraer’s Super Tucano popular in counterinsurgency missions from Africa to South Asia, where resource wealth has spurred new defense spending amid austerity in Europe and the United States.

The focus on frontier markets and expanding ambitions for Brazil’s armed forces have made Embraer one of the few planemakers outside of China that are growing, thanks to the outperformance of its defense operations.

“Is there anyone else this bullish on defense? Certainly nothing that a U.S. investor can bet on. Nothing in this hemisphere,” Deutsche Bank defense analyst Myles Walton said in an interview. “Embraer is the foundation of the military industrial complex in Latin America, through a combination of execution, luck and being the right company at the right time.”

Embraer shares in Sao Paulo (EMBR3.SA) touched a five-year high on Thursday after the Pentagon awarded the contract late on Wednesday. The stock later retreated slightly as analysts said impending cuts to the U.S. defense budget would make the Air Force less likely to exercise options for more planes.

Embraer’s defense division expects to increase revenue by as much as one-third this year, compensating for slipping deliveries to commercial airlines and a string of canceled private jet orders.

The Brazilian defense boom is also luring powerful partners for Embraer, from the helicopter unit of Italy’s Finmeccanica SpA (SIFI.MI) and Israeli drone maker Elbit Systems Ltd (ESLT.TA) to Boeing Co. (BA.N), which has stepped up work with Embraer noticeably over the past year.

BOEING BUOYED

In fact, Boeing may have been the biggest winner from Wednesday’s decision in sheer dollar terms.

The goodwill between Washington and Brasilia will help its shot at a multibillion-dollar Brazilian fighter jets deal, a senior Brazilian official told Reuters, calling the Embraer deal a “very good development” for Boeing.

Last year, President Dilma Rousseff iced the tender process for at least 36 fighter jets after the United States revoked an earlier deal with Embraer due to legal challenges from Kansas-based rival Beechcraft.

Brazilian officials made clear to their U.S. counterparts earlier this year that an Embraer loss on the rebid would be awful for Boeing’s chances at the Brazilian jets contract, according to a source with knowledge of the discussion.

France’s Dassault Aviation SA (AVMD.PA) and Sweden’s Saab AB (SAABb.ST) are also in the running for the deal worth at least $ 4 billion.

Reinforcing the diplomatic stakes of the Afghanistan deal, U.S. Deputy Defense Secretary Ashton Carter called within minutes of the Pentagon announcement to congratulate Brazilian Defense Minister Celso Amorim on the result.

A Boeing spokeswoman said the collaboration with Embraer was a “natural partnership,” but it considers the bidding in the two countries to be entirely separate procurement processes.

“Of course, any opportunity for U.S.-Brazilian cooperation helps the bilateral relationship,” said Ana Paula Ferreira, Boeing’s communications director in Brazil.

The head of Embraer’s defense unit, Carlos Aguiar, applauded the contributions from U.S. partner Sierra Nevada and Boeing, which supplied weapons on Embraer’s second Super Tucano bid.

“There’s no doubt the closer collaboration with Boeing clearly helped qualify our proposal even more,” Aguiar said in a telephone interview after the decision.

READY FOR TAKEOFF

Even more important than Boeing’s contribution to the Super Tucano will be its role as joint sales partner on Embraer’s KC-390 military cargo plane under development.

With Boeing’s help on the sales front, Embraer is aiming for a bigger share of an estimated 700 new cargo planes by 2025. The market could be worth more than $ 50 billion as countries replace aging versions of Lockheed-Martin Corp’s (LMT.N) C-130 Hercules.

That could give another burst to Embraer’s defense growth when it begins delivering the cargo plane in 2015.

The defense division has already doubled its share of revenue over the past five years, due largely to a growing local defense budget. Brazil has made unprecedented efforts in recent years to secure borders deep in the Amazon, monitor vast offshore oil reserves and take on a more prominent role in regional and global politics.

Embraer rose 14 places on a list of the world’s 100 largest arms dealers in 2011, the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) said this month, climbing to 85th place.

Global defense sales fell 5 percent in the year, SIPRI said. Embraer was one of less than a dozen companies from emerging markets to make the list.

Embraer’s defense revenue likely climbed another 18 percent or more in 2012 – enough to lift it even higher in the rankings.

(Additional reporting by Brian Winter; Editing by Kieran Murray and Kenneth Barry)


Reuters: Business News


Analysis: U.S. deal has Brazil"s Embraer flying high in defense

Did Obama Tax the US Into Recession?

Here’s the question of the day: Did president Obama tax the US into recession?

Trim Tab’s Charles Biderman makes that exact claim in U.S. Entered Recession in January Yet Fed Fix Keeps Stocks Pumped.

Welcome to the new recession. TrimTabs tracking of real-time wages and salaries shows that the United States has entered into a recession this year. I had been predicting a slowdown after the big bump in December incomes due to the hike in taxes. It has taken a while for us to get a handle on income this year given all the changes in tax rates. But now enough time has passed that I can say I was right. The U.S. economy has slowed enough to enter into recession.

This is how I know we have entered into a recession. After-tax wages and salaries net of inflation have been shrinking year over year since the second week in January. What has been growing dramatically in real time this year is income and employment tax payments. Withheld income and employment taxes have been running about 8.3% higher year over year, comparing the same 33 business days between Tuesday, January 8 and Monday, February 25.

Checking with our favorite official Washington economist, we now know that higher employment taxes accounted for 6% and new soak-the-rich taxes 2% of that 8.3% gain. That means that, before inflation, after-tax wages and salaries grew by only 0.3% for the 135 million Americans that have jobs subject to withholding.

After inflation? Well, what is inflation now? If you believe the Fed, around 2%. Others say higher. Regardless, there is no doubt that the Obama Administration has taxed us into a recession. Congratulations.

Inquiring minds may wish to read the rest of Biderman’s article for some interesting thoughts on insider selling, stock buybacks, and Trim Tabs’ employment projections vs. BLS reporting.

When Did the Recession Start?

Biderman claims the recession started in 2013. I suggest the US has been in recession since last  June or July but the recession was masked over by four identifiable factors.

  1. Obamacare was responsible for huge hiring of part-timers in the third and fourth quarter, distorting unemployment statistics.
  2. Tax policy and Obamacare policy further shifted expenses and salaries into 4th quarter, yet nominal GDP was still negative for the quarter.
  3. Electioneering games, particularly in regards to military spending, distorted the third quarter statistics.
  4. Blatantly dishonest GDP deflators have overstated Real GDP for all of 2012 but especially the second half of the year.

Let’s assume I am wrong about recession timing, and Biderman is correct. The initial question remains.

Is Obama to Blame?

The answer is no, not really. If the US was not in recession before and is now, the tipping factor is likely to be 2% payroll tax hikes that started in January and secondarily state tax hikes such as Proposition 30 Tax hikes in California, not specifically Obama’s tax-the-wealthy policies.

Certainly Governor Brown and union fearmongering is responsible for the hikes in California.

Who is to blame for the payroll tax hikes? I suggest both parties. There never should have been a cut in the first place with these preposterous budget deficits.

It’s not that I am against tax cuts. Rather I am against preposterous budget deficits and both parties are certainly to blame for that.

This does not detract from Biderman’s overall analysis, just the finger-pointing about who is to blame.

Ultimately, Fed policies, fractional reserve lending, and Congressional spending are the real culprits in this mess, and I bet if Biderman gave it a second thought, that he would agree (regardless of which of us is correct on timing).

Mike “Mish” Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

Mish’s Global Economic Trend Analysis


Did Obama Tax the US Into Recession?

How much is a Facebook "like" worth to your business?

DiamondCandles is a North Carolina-based online business which sells eco-friendly candles that come with a surprise ring inside.

“It’s kind of like a Cracker Jack box,” says CEO Justin Winters.

Depending on your luck, you can win a ring worth anywhere from $ 10 to $ 5,000.

DiamondCandles attracts customers mostly over the web. But what online activity actually leads to candle sales? Banner ads, Facebook “likes”, links to the time you were on public radio?

To make sense of it all, DiamondCandles turned to a New York startup called SumAll, which has come up with a way to let clients look under the hood and see the stats on what online action caused what online reaction.

SumAll’s founder Dane Atkinson says big Internet companies have a mountain of data on this, but getting the information and then parsing it is tricky.

“It’s terrifying how much data they actually collect on your behalf, but they don’t show it back to you,” says Atkinson. “Google is actually one of the better tools out there, but many of them keep 90 percent of the information in the cloud, invisible to you.”

That’s where SumAll steps in. The company seeks out all of its client’s information and, as their name suggests, sums it up in easy-to-understand stats and figures. So what’s a Facebook “like” worth?

“On average across all our customers, a ‘like’ is worth a little bit under $ 1, an Instagram photo is worth a lot more, a post can be worth hundreds of dollars,” says Atkinson.

To hear more about the value of social media advertising, click on the audio player above.

Latest Stories on Marketplace.org


How much is a Facebook "like" worth to your business?

UPDATE 1-Herbalife to add two board members chosen by Icahn

Thu Feb 28, 2013 2:49pm EST

* Herbalife shares up almost 6 pct (Adds Herbalife CEO comment, share activity, bullet points)

Feb 28 (Reuters) – Herbalife Ltd said on Thursday it plans to add two more directors to its board, chosen by activist investor Carl Icahn.

Icahn owns over 14 million shares, or 13.6 percent of the nutritional supplements company. The new directors expand the size of the board to 11 members.

“We are pleased to have reached this agreement and look forward to working with the Icahn representatives as members of our board of directors,” said Herbalife Chief Executive Michael Johnson in a statement. “We appreciate the Icahn parties’ shared views on the inherent value of Herbalife’s operations, products and future prospects.”

Icahn was not immediately available to comment.

Herbalife shares jumped $ 2.16, or 5.8 percent, to $ 39.60 on the New York Stock Exchange. (Reporting by Martinne Geller in New York; Editing by Jeffrey Benkoe and Gerald E. McCormick)


Reuters: Financial Services and Real Estate


UPDATE 1-Herbalife to add two board members chosen by Icahn

UPDATE 1-Brazilian court to rule soon on taxes on Vale"s foreign profits

Thu Feb 28, 2013 2:55pm EST

* Government says Vale owes about $ 15.2 billion in back taxes

* Judgment in case to be made in first half of 2013

* Case relates to foreign profit earned by Vale and other companies

BRASILIA, Feb 28 (Reuters) – Brazil’s Supreme Court will rule in the first half of this year on whether iron ore miner Vale SA must pay an estimated $ 15.2 billion in taxes on earnings from its operations abroad, the president of the court said on Thursday.

Vale and other companies represented by national industrial association, the CNI, are disputing back charges the government is seeking which they say would be tantamount to double taxation.

Other companies affected include state-controlled oil producer Petrobras and privately held engineering company Odebrecht.

Vale has avoided having to make any payment so far because of a court injunction, which says it would only have to pay the taxes if it lost the case. Vale says having to pay the taxes would disrupt its investment plans.

“This case, that is already being judged, will conclude this semester,” Joaquim Barbosa, president of Brazil’s highest court, told a gathering of foreign correspondents.

He said the case was not specifically related to Vale but applied to it and other companies with earnings from foreign operations.

Barbosa said the case had been with the Supreme Court for about six years and some judges who had already voted on it had since left the court, making it more difficult to achieve a “coherent” judgment. Most of those judges, whose vote remains valid after their departure, voted that the taxes on foreign earnings should be paid.

Vale’s chief executive, Murilo Ferreira, told investors on a conference call on Thursday that the government was discussing proposed legislation to determine future taxation rules for Brazilian companies with foreign operations.

“We’re expecting a resolution in the coming weeks or months,” Ferreira said of the court case.

Vale posted its first loss in a decade on Wednesday, taking $ 5.66 billion in writedowns on money-losing mines.

Ferreira said in Thursday’s conference call that higher iron ore prices and a rise in Vale’s gold output would bolster profits in forthcoming quarters.


Reuters: Bonds News


UPDATE 1-Brazilian court to rule soon on taxes on Vale"s foreign profits

Regulators move forward on foreclosure relief

A lock secures a chain on the steel fence of a foreclosed home previously owned by U.S. Bancorp in Los Angeles, California July 17, 2012. REUTERS/Mario Anzuoni

A lock secures a chain on the steel fence of a foreclosed home previously owned by U.S. Bancorp in Los Angeles, California July 17, 2012.

Credit: Reuters/Mario Anzuoni

WASHINGTON | Thu Feb 28, 2013 12:15pm EST

WASHINGTON (Reuters) – Borrowers whose homes were foreclosed on during the U.S. housing crisis will start receiving payments in April from a $ 3.6 billion fund under a previously announced settlement with 13 banks, regulators said on Thursday.

Certain borrowers whose mortgages were serviced by one of the 13 banks can expect to receive between a few hundred dollars and $ 125,000, under settlements designed to end case-by-case reviews of past foreclosures.

The Office of the Comptroller Currency and the Federal Reserve in 2011 ordered banks including Bank of America Corp, JPMorgan Chase & Co, and Wells Fargo to review individual loan files after widespread mistakes were discovered in the way mortgage servicers had processed home seizures.

The reviews were initially expected to determine which borrowers were harmed and to compensate them based on their individual experiences. The process proved slow and expensive, though, with more than $ 1.5 billion going to consultants.

In January regulators replaced the reviews with about $ 9.3 billion in settlements, including $ 3.6 billion in cash payments to foreclosed borrowers. Struggling borrowers will receive the rest of the money in the form of assistance, including loan modifications and forgiveness.

By the end of March, regulators will provide information about the payments to borrowers who fall into one of 11 categories, including those eligible for protections under the Servicemembers Civil Relief Act, those who were not in default when foreclosed on, and those denied a loan modification, the OCC said.

Regulators are still determining how many borrowers fall into each category, OCC Deputy Comptroller Morris Morgan said on a conference call with reporters. Once they have that figure, they can calculate how much money each borrower is likely to receive, he said.

DECLINING ERROR RATE

The OCC and the Fed have faced criticism from Congress over both the reviews and the settlement that ended them. Lawmakers have asked for more information about the consultants who conducted the reviews and what they turned up.

Regulators initially said about 6.5 percent of the loans reviewed appeared to have some errors. On Thursday Morgan said that error rate had declined, but did not provide a specific figure.

The banks are expected to try to keep borrowers in their homes, but the settlement does not mandate specific kinds of relief.

The servicers will receive varying degrees of credit for modifying first and second loans, waiving deficiency judgments, offering short sales, and other types of relief.

Three servicers subject to the original reviews, Everbank, OneWest and GMAC Mortgage, did not enter into the settlements and will continue their reviews, the OCC said.

(Reporting by Aruna Viswanatha; Editing by Gerald E. McCormick and Lisa Von Ahn)


Reuters: Business News


Regulators move forward on foreclosure relief

Walmart Slow to Stock Shelves as Consumer Sales Slump

Looking for strong evidence a consumer slowdown is in progress? Look no further than a Bloomberg reports that shows Wal-Mart’s Slowness to Stock Shelves Worsens, Sales Slump.

Wal-Mart Stores Inc (WMT), already struggling to woo shoppers constrained by higher taxes, is “getting worse” at keeping shelves stocked, the retailer’s U.S. chief told executives, according to minutes of an officers’ meeting obtained by Bloomberg News.

“We run out quickly and the new stuff doesn’t come in,” U.S. Chief Executive Officer Bill Simon said, according to the minutes of the Feb. 1 meeting. Simon called “self-inflicted wounds” Wal-Mart’s “biggest risk” and said an executive vice president had been appointed to fix the restocking problem, according to the minutes.

Once a paragon of logistics, the world’s largest retailer has been trying to improve its restocking efforts since at least 2011, hiring consultants to walk the aisles and track whether hundreds of items are available. It even reassigned store greeters to replenish merchandise. The restocking challenge emerged as Wal-Mart was returning more merchandise to shelves and reducing staff in many stores.

Wal-Mart’s inability to keep its shelves stocked coincides with slowing sales growth. Same-store sales in the U.S. for the 13 weeks ending April 26 will be little changed, Simon said in the company’s Feb. 21 earnings call.

There’s Something Happening Here

In case you missed it, please consider Walmart Senior VP Asks “Where are All the Customers? And Where’s Their Money?”; “February MTD Sales a Total Disaster”

With a tribute to Buffalo Springfield (sorry I cannot find a decent musical video) …
There’s something happening here. What it is, is exactly clear …

Mike “Mish” Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

Mish’s Global Economic Trend Analysis


Walmart Slow to Stock Shelves as Consumer Sales Slump

US economy grew at 0.1 percent rate in 4th quarter

WASHINGTON (AP) — The U.S. economy grew at a 0.1 percent annual rate from October through December, the weakest performance in nearly two years. But economists believe a steady housing rebound, stronger hiring and solid spending by consumers and businesses are pushing economic growth higher in the current quarter.
Business Headlines

US economy grew at 0.1 percent rate in 4th quarter

PODCAST: Grassley on sequester "done deal", J.C. Penney earnings reveal

The U.S. is now just a day away from the sequester — the $ 85 billion in across-the-board federal spending cuts that came out of the debt ceiling debacle of 2011. While it’s tough to find an economist that thinks the cuts are smart policy, the sequester is unlikely to be averted before tonight’s midnight deadline. U.S. Senator Charles Grassley (R-IA) joins Marketplace Morning Report host Jeremy Hobson to discuss the sequester and its likely impact on the economy.

J.C. Penney had another tough quarter. Sales were down 28 percent — more than half a billion dollars. What’s got the retailer down?

And Japan’s prime minister Shinzo Abe said today that he wants to bring some of the country’s nuclear plants back online. That reverses a decision to phase out nuclear energy following the Fukushima disaster. In his speech to parliament, Abe said Japan cited the need for energy security. The country, which does not have its own energy resources, must import large volumes of natural gas, oil and other fossil fuels from around the world in the absence of nuclear program.

Latest Stories on Marketplace.org


PODCAST: Grassley on sequester "done deal", J.C. Penney earnings reveal

Economy barely expands in fourth quarter

A flag is seen outside the New York Stock Exchange in New York, January 4, 2013. REUTERS/Eric Thayer

A flag is seen outside the New York Stock Exchange in New York, January 4, 2013.

Credit: Reuters/Eric Thayer

WASHINGTON | Thu Feb 28, 2013 8:36am EST

WASHINGTON (Reuters) – The U.S. economy barely grew in the fourth quarter although a slightly better performance in exports and fewer imports led the government to scratch an earlier estimate that showed an economic contraction.

Gross domestic product expanded at a 0.1 percent annual rate, the Commerce Department said on Thursday, missing the 0.5 percent gain forecast by analysts in a Reuters poll.

The growth rate was the slowest since the first quarter of 2011 and far from what is needed to fuel a faster drop in the unemployment rate.

However, much of the weakness came from a slowdown in inventory accumulation and a sharp drop in military spending. These factors are expected to reverse in the first quarter.

Consumer spending was more robust by comparison, although it only expanded at a 2.1 percent annual rate.

Because household spending powers about 70 percent of national output, this still-lackluster pace of growth suggests underlying momentum in the economy was quite modest as it entered the first quarter, when significant fiscal tightening began.

Initially, the government had estimated the economy shrank at a 0.1 percent annual rate in the last three months of 2012. That had shocked economists.

Thursday’s report showed the reasons for the decline were mostly as initially estimated. Inventories subtracted 1.55 percentage points from the GDP growth rate during the period, a little more of a drag than initially estimated. Defense spending plunged 22 percent, shaving 1.28 points off growth as in the previous estimate.

There were some relatively bright spots, however. Imports fell 4.5 percent during the period, which added to the overall growth rate because it was a larger drop than in the third quarter. Buying goods from foreigners bleeds money from the economy, subtracting from economic growth.

Also helping reverse the initial view of an economic contraction, exports did not fall as much during the period as the government had thought when it released its advance GDP estimate in January. Exports have been hampered by a recession in Europe, a cooling Chinese economy and storm-related port disruptions.

Excluding the volatile inventories component, GDP rose at a revised 1.7 percent rate, in line with expectations. These final sales of goods and services had been previously estimated to have increased at a 1.1 percent pace.

Business spending was revised to show more growth during the period than initially thought, adding about a percentage point to the growth rate.

Growth in home building was revised slightly higher to show a 17.5 percent annual rate. Residential construction is one of the brighter spots in the economy and is benefiting from the Federal Reserve’s ultra easy monetary policy stance, which has driven mortgage rates to record lows.

(Reporting by Jason Lange; Editing by Andrea Ricci)


Reuters: Business News


Economy barely expands in fourth quarter

Elizabeth Warren Grills Bernanke on "Too Big to Fail" Policy

Inquiring minds are watching Bernanke squirm under pressure from Senator Elizabeth Warren who complains “Too Big To Fail” is now bigger than ever before.

Partial Transcript

Warren: These big financial institutions are getting cheaper borrowing to the tune of $ 83 billion in a single year, simply because people believe government would step in and bail them out. And, I’m just saying, if  they’re getting it, why aren’t they paying for it?

Bernanke: I think we should get rid of it.   

Warren: Alright. I’ll ask the other question. You were here in July, and you said you commended Dodd-Frank for providing a blueprint to get rid of “Too Big to Fail”. We’ve now understood this problem for nearly five years, so when are we going to get rid of “Too Big to Fail”?

Bernanke: Well, some of the you know uh as we’ve been discussing, some of these rules take time to develop. Uh, uh. ….”

It’s safe to say Bernanke was not prepared for this line of questioning.

Mike “Mish” Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

Mish’s Global Economic Trend Analysis


Elizabeth Warren Grills Bernanke on "Too Big to Fail" Policy

Technology increases divide between rich and poor students: Report

There are new numbers today about just how deep the technology gap is when you compare richer and poorer school districts in America. A new study by Pew Research Center’s Internet and American Life Project finds that 8 out of 10 teachers think technology is leading to wider disparities between the haves and have-nots.

In richer districts, 52 percent of teachers had students look up information online as part of the class discussion. The report shows it drops to 35 percent in poorer areas. The teachers surveyed taught AP classes or were part of the National Writing Project.

Lee Rainie, Director of the Pew Research Center’s Internet & American Life Project, joins Marketplace Tech host David Brancaccio to explain what’s behind the disparity and how it is affecting classrooms. 

See the report below:

How Teachers Are Using Technology at Home and in Their Classrooms (Pew Internet &amp; American Life)


Latest Stories on Marketplace.org


Technology increases divide between rich and poor students: Report

Analysis: Cuts unlikely to deliver promised U.S. budget savings

U.S. President Barack Obama and House Speaker John Boehner (R) attend the unveiling ceremony for the Rosa Parks statue in the U.S. Capitol in Washington February 27, 2013. REUTERS/Kevin Lamarque

U.S. President Barack Obama and House Speaker John Boehner (R) attend the unveiling ceremony for the Rosa Parks statue in the U.S. Capitol in Washington February 27, 2013.

Credit: Reuters/Kevin Lamarque

WASHINGTON | Thu Feb 28, 2013 1:06am EST

WASHINGTON (Reuters) – On paper, there’s one thing to like about the ugly spending cuts due to kick in on Friday: $ 85 billion in budget savings at a time when Washington continues to bleed red ink.

In reality, the so-called “sequester” is likely to yield less than half that much in the short term.

In part, that has to do with the complex way the government handles its money. But it also reflects the probability that the spending cuts will hurt the economy, which in turn will lower tax revenue and drive up the costs of social safety-net programs like unemployment insurance.

On top of that, federal agencies – especially the Pentagon – will have to pay penalties to suppliers if the sequester forced them to cancel contracts.

Add it up, and the actual savings could be a lot less than budget hawks envision.

“There is a possibility that we’d save virtually nothing in outlays,” said Steve Bell, a former Republican congressional aide now with the Bipartisan Policy Center, a Washington think tank.

Even a relatively small decline in spending would be magnified over the coming years as it would reduce debt-servicing costs.

But the sequester would do little to restrain federal debt over the long term because it fails to tackle health costs, which are projected to balloon as the population ages. If the sequester were not to take effect, federal debt would equal the size of the economy by 2031, according to the Bipartisan Policy Center.

With the sequester in place, it will hit that dubious milestone in 2033.

The sequester was not supposed to happen. Republicans and Democrats in 2011 set up the deep cuts to military and domestic spending as a worst-case scenario that would force them to reach tough decisions on taxes and spending in order to set U.S. finances on a sustainable course.

But they have been unable to reach an agreement. Absent a last-minute deal, spending cuts of about 13 percent for defense programs and 9 percent for domestic programs will kick in just before Friday night.

CRUNCHING THE NUMBERS

The $ 85 billion cut to budget authority amounts to about 2.4 percent of the $ 3.6 trillion the U.S. government is expected to spend in the fiscal year that ends on September 30.

The actual amount of savings is much less – $ 43 billion in the current fiscal year, according to the Congressional Budget Office. That’s because federal agencies don’t spend all of the money they are allocated in any given fiscal year. A $ 1 billion aircraft carrier, for example, may take years to build.

Even at that lower level, the effects are likely to ripple across the world’s largest economy in a way that will work against deficit-reduction efforts.

The nonpartisan CBO estimates gross domestic product will grow by 1.4 percent this year, compared to 2.0 percent if the sequester was not in place. The Bipartisan Policy Center estimates the sequester will lead to 1 million lost jobs in 2013 and 2014.

Slower economic growth means the government will collect less tax revenue as businesses and workers earn less than they would otherwise – a fact that Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke highlighted in congressional testimony on Wednesday.

“Besides having adverse effects on jobs and incomes, a slower recovery would lead to less actual deficit reduction in the short run for any given set of fiscal actions,” Bernanke told the House of Representatives Financial Services Committee.

The CBO estimated last year that a 0.1-percentage-point drop in GDP growth translates into $ 1 billion less in tax revenue. That would indicate the government will take in $ 6 billion less this year if the sequester takes hold.

The sequester could impact government revenue in other ways as well. The Internal Revenue Service has warned that it could be forced to scale back its enforcement, letting more tax cheats get away.

The government could lose more money to health-care fraud as well if the administrators of the Medicare and Medicaid health plans are forced to scale back their reward programs for whistle blowers.

Slower economic growth also forces the government to spend more on food stamps, unemployment aid and other social programs.

The budget impact of these “automatic stabilizers” – so called because they kick in without requiring new government action – can be dramatic. According to CBO, they added $ 367 billion to the deficit in the 2011 fiscal year, while they reduced the deficit by $ 44 billion in fiscal 2007, before the recession hit.

CBO projected last year that these social programs would widen budget deficits further because of the impact of the sequester and steep tax increases that were due to take effect on January 1.

Most of those tax hikes have been averted, but budget experts said the sequester will still drive up their costs.

“It seems pretty clear that some of the deficit reduction you achieve by allowing sequester to occur would be dissipated,” said Joe Minarik, a former budget official under President Bill Clinton.

(Reporting by Andy Sullivan; Editing by Xavier Briand)



Reuters: Business News


Analysis: Cuts unlikely to deliver promised U.S. budget savings